CAIE S1 2012 June — Question 2

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2012
SessionJune
TopicConditional Probability
TypeFinding unknown probability from total probability

2 Maria has 3 pre-set stations on her radio. When she switches her radio on, there is a probability of 0.3 that it will be set to station 1, a probability of 0.45 that it will be set to station 2 and a probability of 0.25 that it will be set to station 3 . On station 1 the probability that the presenter is male is 0.1 , on station 2 the probability that the presenter is male is 0.85 and on station 3 the probability that the presenter is male is \(p\). When Maria switches on the radio, the probability that it is set to station 3 and the presenter is male is 0.075 .
  1. Show that the value of \(p\) is 0.3 .
  2. Given that Maria switches on and hears a male presenter, find the probability that the radio was set to station 2.