| Exam Board | CAIE |
|---|---|
| Module | S1 (Statistics 1) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 7 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Conditional Probability |
| Type | Finding unknown probability from total probability |
| Difficulty | Moderate -0.3 This is a standard two-part conditional probability question using a tree diagram. Part (i) requires setting up and solving a simple linear equation using the law of total probability (0.3×0.72 + 0.7×x = 0.783). Part (ii) applies Bayes' theorem in a straightforward manner. While it requires understanding of conditional probability concepts, the calculations are routine and the tree diagram structure guides the solution clearly. Slightly easier than average due to the scaffolding provided. |
| Spec | 2.03b Probability diagrams: tree, Venn, sample space2.03c Conditional probability: using diagrams/tables2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles |
\begin{tikzpicture}[thick, scale=1, every node/.style={font=\small}]
% First split
\draw (0,0) -- node[above, sloped] {0.3} (4,1.8);
\draw (0,0) -- (4,-1.8);
% First level labels
\node[right] at (4,1.8) {Nikita buys a scarf};
\node[right] at (4,-1.8) {Nikita buys a handbag};
% Second split from "scarf"
\draw (6.8,1.8) -- node[above, sloped] {0.72} (10,3);
\draw (6.8,1.8) -- (10,0.6);
% Second level labels (scarf)
\node[right] at (10,3) {Mother likes her present};
\node[right] at (10,0.6) {Mother does not like her present};
% Second split from "handbag"
\draw (7.4,-1.8) -- node[above, sloped] {$x$} (10,-0.6);
\draw (7.4,-1.8) -- (10,-3);
% Second level labels (handbag)
\node[right] at (10,-0.6) {Mother likes her present};
\node[right] at (10,-3) {Mother does not like her present};
\end{tikzpicture}
Nikita goes shopping to buy a birthday present for her mother. She buys either a scarf, with probability 0.3, or a handbag. The probability that her mother will like the choice of scarf is 0.72. The probability that her mother will like the choice of handbag is $x$. This information is shown on the tree diagram. The probability that Nikita's mother likes the present that Nikita buys is 0.783.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Find $x$. [3]
\item Given that Nikita's mother does not like her present, find the probability that the present is a scarf. [4]
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S1 2015 Q4 [7]}}