CAIE FP2 2018 November — Question 10 12 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleFP2 (Further Pure Mathematics 2)
Year2018
SessionNovember
Marks12
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicLinear regression
TypeCalculate x on y regression line
DifficultyStandard +0.8 This is a multi-part regression question requiring systematic application of several formulas (finding means from regression equations, computing the second regression line, calculating correlation coefficient, and hypothesis testing). While conceptually straightforward for Further Maths students, it demands careful algebraic manipulation across multiple steps with opportunities for error propagation, placing it moderately above average difficulty.
Spec5.08a Pearson correlation: calculate pmcc5.08d Hypothesis test: Pearson correlation5.09c Calculate regression line

For a random sample of 10 observations of pairs of values \((x, y)\), the equation of the regression line of \(y\) on \(x\) is \(y = 1.1664 + 0.4604x\). It is given that $$\Sigma x^2 = 1419.98 \quad \text{and} \quad \Sigma y^2 = 439.68.$$ The mean value of \(y\) is 6.24.
  1. Find the equation of the regression line of \(x\) on \(y\). [6]
  2. Find the product moment correlation coefficient. [2]
  3. Test at the 5\% significance level whether there is evidence of positive correlation between the two variables. [4]

Question 10:

AnswerMarks Guidance
10(i)x = (y – 1.1664) / 0.4604 = 11.02 or Σ x = 110.2 M1
S = 1419.98 – 110.22/10 = 205.576
xx
S = 439.68 – 62.42/10 = 50.304 (AEF)
AnswerMarks Guidance
yyM1 Find S and S
xx yy
(may be earned in part (ii))
EITHER: b = S / S = (S / S ) × (S / S )
xy yy xy xx xx yy
AnswerMarks Guidance
= 0.4604 × 205.576 / 50.304 = 1.88[15]M1A1 Find gradient b to 3 s.f. in x – x = b (y – y)
OR: S = 0.4604 × S = 94.647
xy xx
b = S / S = 94.647 / 50.304 = 1.88[15]
AnswerMarks Guidance
xy yy(M1A1)
(x – 11.02) = b (y – 6.24), x = 1.88y – 0.721M1A1 and hence eqn. of regression line of x on y
6

AnswerMarks
10(ii)r = S / √(S S ) = 94.647 / √(205.576 × 50.304)
xy xx yy
AnswerMarks Guidance
or √(0.4604 × b) = √(0.4604 × 1.8815) (AEF)M1 Find correlation coefficient r
= 0.931*A1
2

AnswerMarks Guidance
10(iii)H : ρ= 0, H : ρ> 0
0 1B1 State both hypotheses (B0 for r …)
EITHER: r = 0.549
AnswerMarks Guidance
10, 5%*B1 State or use correct tabular one-tail r-value
Reject H if r > tab. r-value (AEF)
AnswerMarks Guidance
0M1 State or imply valid method for conclusion
OR: t = r√((n–2) / (1 – r2)) = 7.21, t = 1.86
AnswerMarks Guidance
r 8,0.95(*B1 (Rarely seen)
Reject H ift > tab. t-value (AEF)
0 rM1)
Evidence of positive correlation (AEF)A1 Correct conclusion (dep *A1, *B1)
4
AnswerMarks Guidance
QuestionAnswer Marks
11A(i)½mv 2 = ½mu2 + mga (1 – cos α) [v 2 = u2 + (2/5) ag]
C CM1A1 Find speed v at C by conservation of energy (A0 if no m)
C
R = mg cos α + mu2/a
AnswerMarks Guidance
AB1 Find reaction R at A by using F = ma
A
R = mg + mv 2/a
AnswerMarks Guidance
C CB1 Find reaction R at C by using F = ma
C
AnswerMarks Guidance
8 {ag + u2 + (2/5) ag} = 9 {(4/5) ag + u2)M1 Verify u2 using R / R = 9/8
C A
AnswerMarks
u2 = (8 + 16/5 – 36/5) ag = 4ag AGA1
6
AnswerMarks
11A(ii)½mv 2 = ½mu2 – 2mga cos α
B
or ½mv 2 – mga (1 + cos α) [v 2 = (22/5) ag]
AnswerMarks Guidance
C CM1 Find speed v at B by conservation of energy (A0 if no m)
B
v 2 = (4 – 16/5) ag or (22/5 – 18/5) ag = (4/5) ag
AnswerMarks Guidance
B*A1
⩾ 0 so P reaches height of B (AEF; dep *A1)A1 (or valid argument based on R )
A
R = m v 2/a – mg cos α = 4mg/5 – 4mg/5 = 0
AnswerMarks Guidance
A BM1**A1 Find reaction R at B by using F = ma
B
AnswerMarks
⩾ 0 so P still [just] in contact at B (AEF; dep **A1)A1
6
AnswerMarks Guidance
11B(i)x = (1/200) Σ x f(x) = 30 064 / 200 = 150.3[2] M1A1
(B1 for 29 964 / 200 = 149.8[2] or 30 164 / 200 = 150.8[2])
2
AnswerMarks Guidance
QuestionAnswer Marks
11B(ii)P(151 ⩽ X < 152)
= P((151 – 150)/1.2 ⩽ Z < (152 – 150)/1.2)
= P(0.833 ⩽ Z < 1.667)
AnswerMarks Guidance
= 0.9522 – 0.7975 [= 0.1547] (to 4 s.f.)M1A1 Find P(151 ⩽ X < 152)
E = 190.44 – 159.5 or 200 × 0.1547 = 30.94 AG
AnswerMarks Guidance
151A1 and hence expected frequency for 151 ⩽ x < 152
3
AnswerMarks Guidance
11B(iii)H : [Normal] distribution fits data (AEF)
0B1 State (at least) null hypothesis in full
O: 3 23 52 69 36 17
i
E: 9.56 30.94 59.50 59.50 30.94 9.56
AnswerMarks Guidance
iM1 Combine values consistent with all exp. values ⩾ 5
X2 = 4.501 + 2.038 + 0.945 + 1.517 + 0.828 + 5.790M1 Find value of X2 from Σ (E – O)2 / E [or Σ O2/E – n ]
i i i i i
AnswerMarks
= 15.6 (to 3 s.f.)A1
No. n of cells: 8 7 6 5
χ 2: 14.07 12.59 11.07 9.488
AnswerMarks Guidance
n-1, 0.95B1 State or use consistent tabular value χ 2 (to 3 s.f.)
n–1, 0..95
[FT on number, n, of cells used to find X2]
Accept H if X2 > tabular value (AEF)
AnswerMarks Guidance
1M1 State or imply valid method for conclusion
15.6 [± 0.1] > 11.1 so distn. doesn’t fit [data] (AEF)A1 Conclusion (requires both values correct)
7
Question 10:
--- 10(i) ---
10(i) | x = (y – 1.1664) / 0.4604 = 11.02 or Σ x = 110.2 | M1 | Find x or Σ x using eqn. of regression line of y on x
S = 1419.98 – 110.22/10 = 205.576
xx
S = 439.68 – 62.42/10 = 50.304 (AEF)
yy | M1 | Find S and S
xx yy
(may be earned in part (ii))
EITHER: b = S / S = (S / S ) × (S / S )
xy yy xy xx xx yy
= 0.4604 × 205.576 / 50.304 = 1.88[15] | M1A1 | Find gradient b to 3 s.f. in x – x = b (y – y)
OR: S = 0.4604 × S = 94.647
xy xx
b = S / S = 94.647 / 50.304 = 1.88[15]
xy yy | (M1A1)
(x – 11.02) = b (y – 6.24), x = 1.88y – 0.721 | M1A1 | and hence eqn. of regression line of x on y
6
--- 10(ii) ---
10(ii) | r = S / √(S S ) = 94.647 / √(205.576 × 50.304)
xy xx yy
or √(0.4604 × b) = √(0.4604 × 1.8815) (AEF) | M1 | Find correlation coefficient r
= 0.931 | *A1
2
--- 10(iii) ---
10(iii) | H : ρ= 0, H : ρ> 0
0 1 | B1 | State both hypotheses (B0 for r …)
EITHER: r = 0.549
10, 5% | *B1 | State or use correct tabular one-tail r-value
Reject H if r > tab. r-value (AEF)
0 | M1 | State or imply valid method for conclusion
OR: t = r√((n–2) / (1 – r2)) = 7.21, t = 1.86
r 8,0.95 | (*B1 | (Rarely seen)
Reject H if | t | > tab. t-value (AEF)
0 r | M1)
Evidence of positive correlation (AEF) | A1 | Correct conclusion (dep *A1, *B1)
4
Question | Answer | Marks | Guidance
11A(i) | ½mv 2 = ½mu2 + mga (1 – cos α) [v 2 = u2 + (2/5) ag]
C C | M1A1 | Find speed v at C by conservation of energy (A0 if no m)
C
R = mg cos α + mu2/a
A | B1 | Find reaction R at A by using F = ma
A
R = mg + mv 2/a
C C | B1 | Find reaction R at C by using F = ma
C
8 {ag + u2 + (2/5) ag} = 9 {(4/5) ag + u2) | M1 | Verify u2 using R / R = 9/8
C A
u2 = (8 + 16/5 – 36/5) ag = 4ag AG | A1
6
11A(ii) | ½mv 2 = ½mu2 – 2mga cos α
B
or ½mv 2 – mga (1 + cos α) [v 2 = (22/5) ag]
C C | M1 | Find speed v at B by conservation of energy (A0 if no m)
B
v 2 = (4 – 16/5) ag or (22/5 – 18/5) ag = (4/5) ag
B | *A1
⩾ 0 so P reaches height of B (AEF; dep *A1) | A1 | (or valid argument based on R )
A
R = m v 2/a – mg cos α = 4mg/5 – 4mg/5 = 0
A B | M1**A1 | Find reaction R at B by using F = ma
B
⩾ 0 so P still [just] in contact at B (AEF; dep **A1) | A1
6
11B(i) | x = (1/200) Σ x f(x) = 30 064 / 200 = 150.3[2] | M1A1 | Find sample mean to 4 s.f. using mid-interval values
(B1 for 29 964 / 200 = 149.8[2] or 30 164 / 200 = 150.8[2])
2
Question | Answer | Marks | Guidance
11B(ii) | P(151 ⩽ X < 152)
= P((151 – 150)/1.2 ⩽ Z < (152 – 150)/1.2)
= P(0.833 ⩽ Z < 1.667)
= 0.9522 – 0.7975 [= 0.1547] (to 4 s.f.) | M1A1 | Find P(151 ⩽ X < 152)
E = 190.44 – 159.5 or 200 × 0.1547 = 30.94 AG
151 | A1 | and hence expected frequency for 151 ⩽ x < 152
3
11B(iii) | H : [Normal] distribution fits data (AEF)
0 | B1 | State (at least) null hypothesis in full
O: 3 23 52 69 36 17
i
E: 9.56 30.94 59.50 59.50 30.94 9.56
i | M1 | Combine values consistent with all exp. values ⩾ 5
X2 = 4.501 + 2.038 + 0.945 + 1.517 + 0.828 + 5.790 | M1 | Find value of X2 from Σ (E – O)2 / E [or Σ O2/E – n ]
i i i i i
= 15.6 (to 3 s.f.) | A1
No. n of cells: 8 7 6 5
χ 2: 14.07 12.59 11.07 9.488
n-1, 0.95 | B1 | State or use consistent tabular value χ 2 (to 3 s.f.)
n–1, 0..95
[FT on number, n, of cells used to find X2]
Accept H if X2 > tabular value (AEF)
1 | M1 | State or imply valid method for conclusion
15.6 [± 0.1] > 11.1 so distn. doesn’t fit [data] (AEF) | A1 | Conclusion (requires both values correct)
7
For a random sample of 10 observations of pairs of values $(x, y)$, the equation of the regression line of $y$ on $x$ is $y = 1.1664 + 0.4604x$. It is given that

$$\Sigma x^2 = 1419.98 \quad \text{and} \quad \Sigma y^2 = 439.68.$$

The mean value of $y$ is 6.24.

\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Find the equation of the regression line of $x$ on $y$. [6]

\item Find the product moment correlation coefficient. [2]

\item Test at the 5\% significance level whether there is evidence of positive correlation between the two variables. [4]
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE FP2 2018 Q10 [12]}}