OCR FS1 AS 2021 June — Question 2 9 marks

Exam BoardOCR
ModuleFS1 AS (Further Statistics 1 AS)
Year2021
SessionJune
Marks9
TopicHypothesis test of Spearman’s rank correlation coefficien
TypeJustify use of Spearman's
DifficultyModerate -0.5 This is a straightforward conceptual question asking students to justify why Spearman's rank correlation is appropriate rather than Pearson's. It requires only recall of standard conditions (ordinal data/rankings, non-normal distribution) with no calculation or problem-solving, making it easier than average but not trivial since it tests understanding of when different tests apply.
Spec5.06a Chi-squared: contingency tables

2 After a holiday organised for a group, the company organising the holiday obtained scores out of 10 for six different aspects of the holiday. The company obtained responses from 100 couples and 100 single travellers. The total scores for each of the aspects are given in the following table.
QuestionAnswerMarkAOGuidance
1(a)\(\frac { 1 } { 0.2 } = 5\)M1 A1 [2]3.3 1.1Geometric distribution soi 5 (or \(5.00 \ldots\) ) only
1(b)\(0.8 ^ { 2 } - 0.8 ^ { 10 }\) \(= \mathbf { 0 . 5 3 3 } \quad ( 0.5326258 \ldots )\)M1 A1 [2]1.1 3.4
Allow for powers 2, 3, 4 and 9, 10, 11 .
Awrt 0.533, www. [5201424/976562]
Or \(0.2 \left( 0.8 ^ { 2 } + \ldots . + 0.8 ^ { 9 } \right) , \pm 1\) term at either end [0.506, 0.378, 0.275, 0.405, 0.302, 0.554, 0.426, 0.324]
1(c)
\(\mathrm { P } ( \geq 10 ) = 0.8 ^ { 9 }\)
\(= 0.1342 \ldots\)
B(30, 0.1342...)
Variance \(= n p q\) = 3.486...
M1
A1
M1
A1ft [4]
3.1b
1.1
3.1b
1.1
Or \(0.8 ^ { 10 }\). Can be implied by correct \(p\)
[0.10737... is M1A0 here]
Stated or implied, their \(0.8 ^ { 9 }\) or \(0.8 ^ { 10 }\)
In range [3.48, 3.49]
SC: 0.134(2) oe not properly shown: B2 for correct final answer.
SC: 2.875 from \(0.8 ^ { 10 }\) : M1A0M1A1ft
QuestionAnswerMarkAOGuidance
2(a)Test is for rankings/rankings arbitrary/not bivariate normal etcB1 [1]2.4OE
2(b)
\(\mathrm { H } _ { 0 } : \rho _ { s } = 0 , \mathrm { H } _ { 1 } : \rho _ { s } > 0\), where \(\rho _ { s }\) is the population rank correlation coefficient
Ranks 543612
512643
\(\Sigma d ^ { 2 } = 20\)
\(r _ { s } = 1 - \frac { 6 \times 20 } { 6 \times 35 }\)
\(= 3 / 7\) or \(0.42857 \ldots\)
<0.9429
B1
B1
M1
A1
B1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
Allow \(\rho _ { s }\) not defined; allow \(\rho\).
Allow: \(\mathrm { H } _ { 0 }\) : no association between rankings.
\(\mathrm { H } _ { 1 }\) : positive association (but not \(\mathrm { H } _ { 1 }\) : association)
Do not reject \(\mathrm { H } _ { 0 }\)
Insufficient evidence of association between ranking given by the two categories
M1ft
A1ft
[7]
1.1
2.2b
FT on their \(\Sigma d ^ { 2 }\) only
2(c)Not dependent on any distributional assumptions
B1
[1]
1.2Oe (cf. Specification, 5.08f)
QuestionAnswerMarkAOGuidance
3(a)Failures occur to no fixed pattern/are not predictableB1 [1]1.1OE. NOT "independent"
3(b)Failures occur independently of one another and at constant average rate
B1
B1
[2]
1.1
1.1
Not recoverable from (a) if independence not restated here; must be contextualised
Ignore "singly". Allow "uniform" rate, not "constant rate" or "constant probability"; must be contextualised
3(c)
Variance (1.6384) \(\approx\) mean
So suggests that it is likely to be well modelled
M1
A1
[2]
1.1
3.5a
Compare variance (or SD). Allow square/square-root confusion
Correct comparison and conclusion, 1.64 or better seen
3(d)\(\mathrm { e } ^ { - 1.61 }\)
B1
[1]
3.4Exact needed, allow even if \(0 !\) or \(1.61 ^ { 0 }\) or both left in
3(e)
1\(\geq 2\)
0.3220.478
B1
B1
[2]
3.4
1.1
One correct e.g. 0.3218
Other correct e.g. 0.4783
3(f)\(\mathrm { P } ( F = 1 )\) will be smaller as single failures are less likely
B1*
depB1
[2]
3.5c
3.3
OE. Partial answer: B1

2 After a holiday organised for a group, the company organising the holiday obtained scores out of 10 for six different aspects of the holiday. The company obtained responses from 100 couples and 100 single travellers. The total scores for each of the aspects are given in the following table.

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}
\hline
\multicolumn{2}{|c|}{Question} & Answer &  & Mark & AO & \multicolumn{2}{|l|}{Guidance} \\
\hline
1 & (a) & $\frac { 1 } { 0.2 } = 5$ &  & M1 A1 [2] & 3.3 1.1 & Geometric distribution soi 5 (or $5.00 \ldots$ ) only &  \\
\hline
1 & (b) & $0.8 ^ { 2 } - 0.8 ^ { 10 }$ \(= \mathbf { 0 . 5 3 3 } \quad ( 0.5326258 \ldots )\) &  & M1 A1 [2] & 1.1 3.4 & \begin{tabular}{l}
Allow for powers 2, 3, 4 and 9, 10, 11 . \\
Awrt 0.533, www. [5201424/976562] \\
\end{tabular} & Or $0.2 \left( 0.8 ^ { 2 } + \ldots . + 0.8 ^ { 9 } \right) , \pm 1$ term at either end [0.506, 0.378, 0.275, 0.405, 0.302, 0.554, 0.426, 0.324] \\
\hline
1 & (c) & \begin{tabular}{l}
\(\mathrm { P } ( \geq 10 ) = 0.8 ^ { 9 }\) \\
$= 0.1342 \ldots$ \\
B(30, 0.1342...) \\
Variance $= n p q$ = 3.486... \\
\end{tabular} &  & \begin{tabular}{l}
M1 \\
A1 \\
M1 \\
A1ft [4] \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
3.1b \\
1.1 \\
3.1b \\
1.1 \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
Or $0.8 ^ { 10 }$. Can be implied by correct $p$ \\[0pt]
[0.10737... is M1A0 here] \\
Stated or implied, their $0.8 ^ { 9 }$ or $0.8 ^ { 10 }$ \\
In range [3.48, 3.49] \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
SC: 0.134(2) oe not properly shown: B2 for correct final answer. \\
SC: 2.875 from $0.8 ^ { 10 }$ : M1A0M1A1ft \\
\end{tabular} \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|}
\hline
\multicolumn{2}{|c|}{Question} & Answer & Mark & AO & Guidance \\
\hline
2 & (a) & Test is for rankings/rankings arbitrary/not bivariate normal etc & B1 [1] & 2.4 & OE \\
\hline
2 & (b) & \begin{tabular}{l}
$\mathrm { H } _ { 0 } : \rho _ { s } = 0 , \mathrm { H } _ { 1 } : \rho _ { s } > 0$, where $\rho _ { s }$ is the population rank correlation coefficient \\
Ranks 543612 \\
512643 \\
$\Sigma d ^ { 2 } = 20$ \\
$r _ { s } = 1 - \frac { 6 \times 20 } { 6 \times 35 }$ \\
$= 3 / 7$ or $0.42857 \ldots$ \\
<0.9429 \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
B1 \\
B1 \\
M1 \\
A1 \\
B1 \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
1.1 \\
1.1 \\
1.1 \\
1.1 \\
1.1 \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
Allow $\rho _ { s }$ not defined; allow $\rho$. \\
Allow: $\mathrm { H } _ { 0 }$ : no association between rankings. \\
$\mathrm { H } _ { 1 }$ : positive association (but not $\mathrm { H } _ { 1 }$ : association) \\
\end{tabular} \\
\hline
 &  & \begin{tabular}{l}
Do not reject $\mathrm { H } _ { 0 }$ \\
Insufficient evidence of association between ranking given by the two categories \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
M1ft \\
A1ft \\[0pt]
[7] \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
1.1 \\
2.2b \\
\end{tabular} & FT on their $\Sigma d ^ { 2 }$ only \\
\hline
2 & (c) & Not dependent on any distributional assumptions & \begin{tabular}{l}
B1 \\[0pt]
[1] \\
\end{tabular} & 1.2 & Oe (cf. Specification, 5.08f) \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}
\hline
\multicolumn{3}{|r|}{Question} & Answer & Mark & AO & Guidance \\
\hline
3 & (a) &  & Failures occur to no fixed pattern/are not predictable & B1 [1] & 1.1 & OE. NOT "independent" \\
\hline
3 & (b) &  & Failures occur independently of one another and at constant average rate & \begin{tabular}{l}
B1 \\
B1 \\[0pt]
[2] \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
1.1 \\
1.1 \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
Not recoverable from (a) if independence not restated here; must be contextualised \\
Ignore "singly". Allow "uniform" rate, not "constant rate" or "constant probability"; must be contextualised \\
\end{tabular} \\
\hline
3 & (c) &  & \begin{tabular}{l}
Variance (1.6384) $\approx$ mean \\
So suggests that it is likely to be well modelled \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
M1 \\
A1 \\[0pt]
[2] \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
1.1 \\
3.5a \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
Compare variance (or SD). Allow square/square-root confusion \\
Correct comparison and conclusion, 1.64 or better seen \\
\end{tabular} \\
\hline
3 & (d) &  & $\mathrm { e } ^ { - 1.61 }$ & \begin{tabular}{l}
B1 \\[0pt]
[1] \\
\end{tabular} & 3.4 & Exact needed, allow even if $0 !$ or $1.61 ^ { 0 }$ or both left in \\
\hline
3 & (e) &  & \begin{tabular}{ | c | c | }
\hline
1 & $\geq 2$ \\
\hline
0.322 & 0.478 \\
\hline
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
B1 \\
B1 \\[0pt]
[2] \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
3.4 \\
1.1 \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
One correct e.g. 0.3218 \\
Other correct e.g. 0.4783 \\
\end{tabular} \\
\hline
3 & (f) &  & $\mathrm { P } ( F = 1 )$ will be smaller as single failures are less likely & \begin{tabular}{l}
B1* \\
depB1 \\[0pt]
[2] \\
\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l}
3.5c \\
3.3 \\
\end{tabular} & OE. Partial answer: B1 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR FS1 AS 2021 Q2 [9]}}
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