AQA S2 2011 June — Question 1 13 marks

Exam BoardAQA
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2011
SessionJune
Marks13
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicPoisson distribution
TypePoisson with binomial combination
DifficultyModerate -0.3 This is a straightforward S2 question testing standard Poisson distribution calculations (scaling parameter, using tables/calculator) and binomial probability, with routine contextual reasoning about model validity. All parts follow textbook procedures with no novel problem-solving required, making it slightly easier than average A-level maths.
Spec2.04b Binomial distribution: as model B(n,p)2.04c Calculate binomial probabilities5.02i Poisson distribution: random events model5.02j Poisson formula: P(X=x) = e^(-lambda)*lambda^x/x!5.02k Calculate Poisson probabilities

1 The number of cars passing a speed camera on a main road between 9.30 am and 11.30 am may be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean rate of 2.6 per minute.
    1. Write down the distribution of \(X\), the number of cars passing the speed camera during a 5-minute interval between 9.30 am and 11.30 am .
    2. Determine \(\mathrm { P } ( X = 20 )\).
    3. Determine \(\mathrm { P } ( 6 \leqslant X \leqslant 18 )\).
  1. Give two reasons why a Poisson distribution with mean 2.6 may not be a suitable model for the number of cars passing the speed camera during a 1 -minute interval between 8.00 am and 9.30 am on weekdays.
  2. When \(n\) cars pass the speed camera, the number of cars, \(Y\), that exceed 60 mph may be modelled by the distribution \(\mathrm { B } ( n , 0.2 )\). Given that \(n = 20\), determine \(\mathrm { P } ( Y \geqslant 5 )\).
  3. Stating a necessary assumption, calculate the probability that, during a given 5-minute interval between 9.30 am and 11.30 am , exactly 20 cars pass the speed camera of which at least 5 are exceeding 60 mph .

1 The number of cars passing a speed camera on a main road between 9.30 am and 11.30 am may be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean rate of 2.6 per minute.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item \begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Write down the distribution of $X$, the number of cars passing the speed camera during a 5-minute interval between 9.30 am and 11.30 am .
\item Determine $\mathrm { P } ( X = 20 )$.
\item Determine $\mathrm { P } ( 6 \leqslant X \leqslant 18 )$.
\end{enumerate}\item Give two reasons why a Poisson distribution with mean 2.6 may not be a suitable model for the number of cars passing the speed camera during a 1 -minute interval between 8.00 am and 9.30 am on weekdays.
\item When $n$ cars pass the speed camera, the number of cars, $Y$, that exceed 60 mph may be modelled by the distribution $\mathrm { B } ( n , 0.2 )$.

Given that $n = 20$, determine $\mathrm { P } ( Y \geqslant 5 )$.
\item Stating a necessary assumption, calculate the probability that, during a given 5-minute interval between 9.30 am and 11.30 am , exactly 20 cars pass the speed camera of which at least 5 are exceeding 60 mph .
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{AQA S2 2011 Q1 [13]}}