| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | S2 (Statistics 2) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 16 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Hypothesis test of binomial distributions |
| Type | One-tailed hypothesis test (upper tail, H₁: p > p₀) |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a standard S2 hypothesis testing question covering routine binomial test procedures. Part (a) is a straightforward one-tailed test, (b) requires finding critical regions from tables, (c)-(d) apply the test, and (e) uses normal approximation with continuity correction. All techniques are textbook exercises with no novel problem-solving required, making it slightly easier than average A-level difficulty. |
| Spec | 2.05b Hypothesis test for binomial proportion2.05c Significance levels: one-tail and two-tail5.05c Hypothesis test: normal distribution for population mean |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(H_0: p = 0.35\), \(H_1: p > 0.35\) | B1 | Both hypotheses correct |
| \(V \sim B(40, 0.35)\); \(P(V \geq 18) = 1 - P(V \leq 17) = 0.1239\) or \(P(V \geq 19) = 0.0699\), \(P(V \geq 20) = 0.0363\); CR \(V \geq 20\) | M1, A1 | awrt 0.124 or \(V \geq 20\) or \(V > 19\) |
| Accept \(H_0\) / Not Significant / 18 does not lie in critical region | M1d | Dep on previous M; ft their CR or probability |
| There is insufficient evidence that the proportion/amount/number/percentage of customers who bought organic vegetables has increased | A1cso | Correct contextual statement; bold words required |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(E \sim B(50, 0.35)\) | M1 | Or correct probability/one tail of CR correct |
| \(P(E \leq 10) = 0.0160\); \(P(E \geq 25) = 0.0207\); \(P(E \leq 11) = 0.0342\); \(P(E \geq 24) = 0.0396\) | ||
| CR: \(E \leq 10\) and \(E \geq 25\) | A1 A1 | Allow any letter; condone missing letter |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| The manager's claim is supported or there is sufficient evidence that the proportion of customers buying organic eggs is different from those buying organic vegetables | B1ft | Must include: managers claim or eggs and vegetable(s); ft their 2-tail CR |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(0.016 + 0.0207 = 0.0367\) or \(3.67\%\) | B1 | awrt 0.0367 or 3.67% |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(F \sim N(40, 32)\) | M1 A1 | Mean = 40, variance = 32 |
| \(P(F < n) = P\!\left(Z < \frac{n - 0.5 - 40}{\sqrt{32}}\right)\) | M1 M1d | Continuity correction \(n - 0.5\); dep on previous M |
| \(\frac{n - 0.5 - 40}{\sqrt{32}} = -1.68\) | B1 | \(\pm 1.68\) |
| \(n = 31\) | A1cso | All previous marks must be awarded |
# Question 5:
## Part (a):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $H_0: p = 0.35$, $H_1: p > 0.35$ | B1 | Both hypotheses correct |
| $V \sim B(40, 0.35)$; $P(V \geq 18) = 1 - P(V \leq 17) = 0.1239$ or $P(V \geq 19) = 0.0699$, $P(V \geq 20) = 0.0363$; CR $V \geq 20$ | M1, A1 | awrt 0.124 or $V \geq 20$ or $V > 19$ |
| Accept $H_0$ / Not Significant / 18 does not lie in critical region | M1d | Dep on previous M; ft their CR or probability |
| There is insufficient evidence that the proportion/amount/number/percentage of customers who bought **organic vegetables** has increased | A1cso | Correct contextual statement; bold words required |
## Part (b):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $E \sim B(50, 0.35)$ | M1 | Or correct probability/one tail of CR correct |
| $P(E \leq 10) = 0.0160$; $P(E \geq 25) = 0.0207$; $P(E \leq 11) = 0.0342$; $P(E \geq 24) = 0.0396$ | | |
| CR: $E \leq 10$ and $E \geq 25$ | A1 A1 | Allow any letter; condone missing letter |
## Part (c):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| The **manager's claim** is supported or there is sufficient evidence that the proportion of customers buying organic **eggs** is different from those buying organic **vegetables** | B1ft | Must include: managers claim or eggs and vegetable(s); ft their 2-tail CR |
## Part (d):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $0.016 + 0.0207 = 0.0367$ or $3.67\%$ | B1 | awrt 0.0367 or 3.67% |
## Part (e):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $F \sim N(40, 32)$ | M1 A1 | Mean = 40, variance = 32 |
| $P(F < n) = P\!\left(Z < \frac{n - 0.5 - 40}{\sqrt{32}}\right)$ | M1 M1d | Continuity correction $n - 0.5$; dep on previous M |
| $\frac{n - 0.5 - 40}{\sqrt{32}} = -1.68$ | B1 | $\pm 1.68$ |
| $n = 31$ | A1cso | All previous marks must be awarded |
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5. Past records show that the proportion of customers buying organic vegetables from Tesson supermarket is 0.35
During a particular day, a random sample of 40 customers from Tesson supermarket was taken and 18 of them bought organic vegetables.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Test, at the $5 \%$ level of significance, whether or not this provides evidence that the proportion of customers who bought organic vegetables has increased. State your hypotheses clearly.
The manager of Tesson supermarket claims that the proportion of customers buying organic eggs is different from the proportion of those buying organic vegetables. To test this claim the manager decides to take a random sample of 50 customers.
\item Using a $5 \%$ level of significance, find the critical region to enable the Tesson supermarket manager to test her claim. The probability for each tail of the region should be as close as possible to $2.5 \%$
During a particular day, a random sample of 50 customers from Tesson supermarket is taken and 8 of them bought organic eggs.
\item Using your answer to part (b), state whether or not this sample supports the manager's claim. Use a $5 \%$ level of significance.
\item State the actual significance level of this test.
The proportion of customers who buy organic fruit from Tesson supermarket is 0.2 During a particular day, a random sample of 200 customers from Tesson supermarket is taken. Using a suitable approximation, the probability that fewer than $n$ of these customers bought organic fruit is 0.0465 correct to 4 decimal places.
\item Find the value of $n$.
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S2 2018 Q5 [16]}}