Edexcel S2 2021 June — Question 6 10 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2021
SessionJune
Marks10
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicApproximating Binomial to Normal Distribution
TypeFind parameter from normal approximation
DifficultyStandard +0.8 This question requires working backwards from a normal approximation probability to find the binomial parameter p, involving continuity correction, z-score manipulation, and solving a quadratic equation. The reverse-engineering aspect and algebraic manipulation of variance/mean expressions make it significantly harder than standard forward normal approximation problems.
Spec5.05a Sample mean distribution: central limit theorem

  1. The random variable \(Y \sim \mathrm {~B} ( 225 , p )\)
Using a normal approximation, the probability that \(Y\) is at least 188 is 0.1056 to 4 decimal places.
  1. Show that \(p\) satisfies \(145 p ^ { 2 } - 241 p + 100 = 0\) when the normal probability tables are used.
  2. Hence find the value of \(p\), justifying your answer.

Question 6:
Part (i):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance Notes
\(z = 1.25\)B1 For 1.25 or better (calculator gives: 1.25027...)
\(\frac{187.5 - \mu}{\sigma} = 1.25\)M1 M1 A1 1st M1: for attempting to use a continuity correction i.e. for sight of \(188 \pm 0.5\). 2nd M1: for standardising using \(\mu\) and \(\sigma\) or \(np\) and \(\sqrt{np(1-p)}\) (Condone letter \(n\) or any integer > 0). 1st A1: for a correct equation with compatible signs, allow 1.250... If using a value for \(n\) it must be 225
\(187.5 - \mu = 1.25\sigma\)
\(\mu = 225p\)M1 3rd M1: for \(\mu = 225p\) seen at any stage in the working
\(\sigma = \sqrt{225p(1-p)}\)M1 4th M1: for \(\sigma = \sqrt{225p(1-p)}\) seen at any stage in the working. Must be for \(\sigma\) not \(\sigma^2 = 225p(1-p)\)
\((187.5 - 225p)^2 = (1.25)^2 \times 225p(1-p)\) or \((150-180p)^2 = 225p(1-p)\)M1 5th M1: for squaring to get a quadratic equation in \(p\)
e.g. \(900(5-6p)^2 = 225(p - p^2) \Rightarrow 4(25 - 60p + 36p^2) = p - p^2\)
Leading to \(145p^2 - 241p + 100 = 0*\)A1* 2nd A1\*: dep on all previous Ms and use of 1.25 (with correct sign) for at least 1 correct intermediate step from a correct quadratic equation e.g one of those in scheme for 5th M1
Part (ii):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance Notes
\(\left[(29p-25)(5p-4) = 0 \Rightarrow\right] \quad p = 0.8 \quad \text{or} \quad p = \frac{25}{29}\) (accept: 0.862(0689...))M1 For solving the quadratic correctly — leading to \(p = \ldots\) or implied by 0.8 or awrt 0.862
\([p =]\ \mathbf{0.8}\) because 0.862 gives a mean greater than 188 (oe)A1 For 0.8 and a correct reason to eliminate 0.862
(10 marks total)
# Question 6:

## Part (i):

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance Notes |
|---|---|---|
| $z = 1.25$ | B1 | For 1.25 or better (calculator gives: 1.25027...) |
| $\frac{187.5 - \mu}{\sigma} = 1.25$ | M1 M1 A1 | **1st M1:** for attempting to use a continuity correction i.e. for sight of $188 \pm 0.5$. **2nd M1:** for standardising using $\mu$ and $\sigma$ or $np$ and $\sqrt{np(1-p)}$ (Condone letter $n$ or any integer > 0). **1st A1:** for a correct equation with compatible signs, allow 1.250... If using a value for $n$ it must be 225 |
| $187.5 - \mu = 1.25\sigma$ | | |
| $\mu = 225p$ | M1 | **3rd M1:** for $\mu = 225p$ seen at any stage in the working |
| $\sigma = \sqrt{225p(1-p)}$ | M1 | **4th M1:** for $\sigma = \sqrt{225p(1-p)}$ seen at any stage in the working. Must be for $\sigma$ not $\sigma^2 = 225p(1-p)$ |
| $(187.5 - 225p)^2 = (1.25)^2 \times 225p(1-p)$ or $(150-180p)^2 = 225p(1-p)$ | M1 | **5th M1:** for squaring to get a quadratic equation in $p$ |
| e.g. $900(5-6p)^2 = 225(p - p^2) \Rightarrow 4(25 - 60p + 36p^2) = p - p^2$ | | |
| Leading to $145p^2 - 241p + 100 = 0*$ | A1* | **2nd A1\*:** dep on all previous Ms and use of 1.25 (with correct sign) for at least 1 correct intermediate step from a correct quadratic equation e.g one of those in scheme for 5th M1 |

## Part (ii):

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance Notes |
|---|---|---|
| $\left[(29p-25)(5p-4) = 0 \Rightarrow\right] \quad p = 0.8 \quad \text{or} \quad p = \frac{25}{29}$ (accept: 0.862(0689...)) | M1 | For solving the quadratic correctly — leading to $p = \ldots$ or implied by 0.8 or awrt 0.862 |
| $[p =]\ \mathbf{0.8}$ because 0.862 gives a mean greater than 188 (oe) | A1 | For 0.8 **and** a correct reason to eliminate 0.862 |
| | **(10 marks total)** | |
\begin{enumerate}
  \item The random variable $Y \sim \mathrm {~B} ( 225 , p )$
\end{enumerate}

Using a normal approximation, the probability that $Y$ is at least 188 is 0.1056 to 4 decimal places.\\
(i) Show that $p$ satisfies $145 p ^ { 2 } - 241 p + 100 = 0$ when the normal probability tables are used.\\
(ii) Hence find the value of $p$, justifying your answer.

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S2 2021 Q6 [10]}}