Edexcel S2 2015 June — Question 1 10 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2015
SessionJune
Marks10
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicCumulative distribution functions
TypeCDF to PDF derivation
DifficultyModerate -0.3 This is a straightforward S2 question requiring standard techniques: reading values from a CDF, differentiating piecewise to find PDF, and solving a probability equation. All steps are routine applications of definitions with no novel insight required, making it slightly easier than average.
Spec5.03a Continuous random variables: pdf and cdf5.03b Solve problems: using pdf5.03e Find cdf: by integration

  1. A continuous random variable \(X\) has cumulative distribution function
$$\mathrm { F } ( x ) = \left\{ \begin{array} { l r } 0 & x < 2 \\ \frac { 1 } { 20 } \left( x ^ { 2 } - 4 \right) & 2 \leqslant x \leqslant 4 \\ \frac { 1 } { 5 } ( 2 x - 5 ) & 4 < x \leqslant 5 \\ 1 & x > 5 \end{array} \right.$$
  1. Calculate \(\mathrm { P } ( X > 4 )\)
  2. Find the probability density function of \(X\), specifying it for all values of \(x\).
  3. Find the value of \(a\) such that \(\mathrm { P } ( 3 < X < a ) = 0.642\)
  4. Find the probability density function of \(X\), specifying it for all values of \(x\).

Question 1:
Part (a)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(P(X > 4) = 1 - F(4)\)M1 \(1 - F(4)\) seen or used
\(= 1 - \frac{3}{5} = \frac{2}{5}\)A1 \(\frac{2}{5}\) or \(0.4\)
[2 marks total]
Part (b)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(P(3 < X < a) = 0.642\)
\(F(a) - F(3) = 0.642\)M1 o.e. \(F(a) - F(3) = 0.642\)
\(F(a) - \frac{1}{20}(3^2 - 4) = 0.642 \Rightarrow F(a) = 0.892\)A1 o.e. Correct equation
\(\frac{1}{5}(2a-5) - \frac{1}{20}(3^2-4) = 0.642 \Rightarrow a = \ldots\)dM1 Solving this equation o.e., leading to \(a = \ldots\) Follow through their \(F(3)\)
\(\frac{1}{5}(2a-5) = 0.892 \Rightarrow a = 4.73\)A1 cao \(a = 4.73\) (or \(x = 4.73\))
Alternative Method for Part (b):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(\int_3^4 \left(\frac{1}{10}x\right)\{dx\}\)M1 Correct expression for finding probability between \(x=3\) and \(x=4\)
\(= \left[\frac{x^2}{20}\right]_3^4 = \frac{4^2}{20} - \frac{3^2}{20} = \frac{7}{20}\)A1 Correct \(\frac{4^2}{20} - \frac{3^2}{20}\), simplified or un-simplified
\(\int_3^4 \left(\frac{1}{10}x\right)\{dx\} + \int_4^a \left(\frac{2}{5}\right)\{dx\} = 0.642 \Rightarrow a = \ldots\)dM1 Writes correct equation and attempts to solve leading to \(a = \ldots\)
\(\frac{7}{20} + \frac{2}{5}a - \frac{8}{5} = 0.642 \Rightarrow a = 4.73\)A1 cao \(a = 4.73\) (or \(x = 4.73\))
[4 marks total]
Part (c)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(f(x) = \frac{d}{dx}\left(\frac{1}{20}(x^2-4)\right) = \frac{1}{10}x\)M1 Attempt at differentiation
At least one of \(\frac{1}{10}x\) or \(\frac{2}{5}\)A1
Both \(\frac{1}{10}x\) and \(\frac{2}{5}\)A1
\(f(x) = \begin{cases} \frac{1}{10}x, & 2 \leq x \leq 4 \\ \frac{2}{5}, & 4 < x \leq 5 \\ 0, & \text{otherwise} \end{cases}\)dB1ft Dependent on M1; all three lines with limits correctly followed through from their \(F'(x)\)
[4 marks total]
[10 marks total for Question 1]
Question 1:
Part (a)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(1 - F(4)\) seen or usedM1 Can be implied by \(1-\frac{3}{5}\) or \(1-\frac{1}{5}(2(4)-5)\) or \(1-\frac{1}{20}(4^2-4)\); probability statements \(1-P(X \leq 4)\) or \(1-P(X<4)\) not sufficient
\(\frac{2}{5}\) or \(0.4\)A1 Give M1A1 for correct answer from no working
Part (b)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(F(a) - F(3) = 0.642\) or equivalentM1 \(F(a)\) can be written as \(P(X
\(F(a) - \frac{1}{20}(3^2-4) = 0.642\) or equivalent (un-simplified)A1 Give \(1^{\text{st}}\) M1 \(1^{\text{st}}\) A1 for \(F(a)=0.892\) or \(P(X \geq a)=0.108\)
Allow SC: \(\frac{1}{20}(a^2-4) - \frac{1}{20}(3^2-4) = 0.642\)SC
Give \(1^{\text{st}}\) M0 for \(F(a-1)-F(3)=0.642\) without correct acceptable statementNote
Attempts to solve \(\frac{1}{5}(2a-5) - \text{their } F(3)'' = 0.642\) leading to \(a=\ldots\)dM1 Dependent on FIRST method mark; dM1 can also be given for \(\frac{1}{5}(2a-5)=0.892\) or \(1-\frac{1}{5}(2a-5)=0.108\)
\(a = 4.73\) (or \(x=4.73\))A1 cao Give M0A0M0A0 for \(F(a)-(1-F(3))=0.642 \Rightarrow F(a)=1.392\); Give M0A0M0A0 for \(\int_3^a \left(\frac{1}{10}x\right)dx=0.642\) (solves to give awrt 4.67)
Part (c)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
At least one of: \(\frac{1}{20}(x^2-4) \to \pm\alpha x \pm \beta,\ \alpha\neq 0,\ \beta\) can be 0; or \(\frac{1}{5}(2x-5) \to \pm\delta,\ \delta\neq 0\)M1
At least one of \(\frac{1}{10}x\) or \(\frac{2}{5}\)\(1^{\text{st}}\) A1 Can be simplified or un-simplified
Both \(\frac{1}{10}x\) and \(\frac{2}{5}\)\(2^{\text{nd}}\) A1 Can be simplified or un-simplified
All three lines with limits correctly followed through from their \(F'(x)\)dB1ft Dependent on FIRST method mark; condone use of \(<\) rather than \(\leq\); \(0\) otherwise equivalent to \(0, x<2\) and \(0, x>5\); accept \(f\) expressed consistently in another variable e.g. \(u\)
# Question 1:

## Part (a)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $P(X > 4) = 1 - F(4)$ | M1 | $1 - F(4)$ seen or used |
| $= 1 - \frac{3}{5} = \frac{2}{5}$ | A1 | $\frac{2}{5}$ or $0.4$ |

**[2 marks total]**

---

## Part (b)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $P(3 < X < a) = 0.642$ | | |
| $F(a) - F(3) = 0.642$ | M1 o.e. | $F(a) - F(3) = 0.642$ |
| $F(a) - \frac{1}{20}(3^2 - 4) = 0.642 \Rightarrow F(a) = 0.892$ | A1 o.e. | Correct equation |
| $\frac{1}{5}(2a-5) - \frac{1}{20}(3^2-4) = 0.642 \Rightarrow a = \ldots$ | dM1 | Solving this equation o.e., leading to $a = \ldots$ Follow through their $F(3)$ |
| $\frac{1}{5}(2a-5) = 0.892 \Rightarrow a = 4.73$ | A1 cao | $a = 4.73$ (or $x = 4.73$) |

**Alternative Method for Part (b):**

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $\int_3^4 \left(\frac{1}{10}x\right)\{dx\}$ | M1 | Correct expression for finding probability between $x=3$ and $x=4$ |
| $= \left[\frac{x^2}{20}\right]_3^4 = \frac{4^2}{20} - \frac{3^2}{20} = \frac{7}{20}$ | A1 | Correct $\frac{4^2}{20} - \frac{3^2}{20}$, simplified or un-simplified |
| $\int_3^4 \left(\frac{1}{10}x\right)\{dx\} + \int_4^a \left(\frac{2}{5}\right)\{dx\} = 0.642 \Rightarrow a = \ldots$ | dM1 | Writes correct equation and attempts to solve leading to $a = \ldots$ |
| $\frac{7}{20} + \frac{2}{5}a - \frac{8}{5} = 0.642 \Rightarrow a = 4.73$ | A1 cao | $a = 4.73$ (or $x = 4.73$) |

**[4 marks total]**

---

## Part (c)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $f(x) = \frac{d}{dx}\left(\frac{1}{20}(x^2-4)\right) = \frac{1}{10}x$ | M1 | Attempt at differentiation |
| At least one of $\frac{1}{10}x$ or $\frac{2}{5}$ | A1 | |
| Both $\frac{1}{10}x$ and $\frac{2}{5}$ | A1 | |
| $f(x) = \begin{cases} \frac{1}{10}x, & 2 \leq x \leq 4 \\ \frac{2}{5}, & 4 < x \leq 5 \\ 0, & \text{otherwise} \end{cases}$ | dB1ft | Dependent on M1; all three lines with limits correctly followed through from their $F'(x)$ |

**[4 marks total]**

**[10 marks total for Question 1]**

# Question 1:

## Part (a)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $1 - F(4)$ seen or used | M1 | Can be implied by $1-\frac{3}{5}$ or $1-\frac{1}{5}(2(4)-5)$ or $1-\frac{1}{20}(4^2-4)$; probability statements $1-P(X \leq 4)$ or $1-P(X<4)$ not sufficient |
| $\frac{2}{5}$ or $0.4$ | A1 | Give M1A1 for correct answer from no working |

## Part (b)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $F(a) - F(3) = 0.642$ or equivalent | M1 | $F(a)$ can be written as $P(X<a)$ or $P(X \leq a)$; $F(3)$ as $P(X<3)$ or $P(X \leq 3)$ |
| $F(a) - \frac{1}{20}(3^2-4) = 0.642$ or equivalent (un-simplified) | A1 | Give $1^{\text{st}}$ M1 $1^{\text{st}}$ A1 for $F(a)=0.892$ or $P(X \geq a)=0.108$ |
| Allow SC: $\frac{1}{20}(a^2-4) - \frac{1}{20}(3^2-4) = 0.642$ | SC | — |
| Give $1^{\text{st}}$ M0 for $F(a-1)-F(3)=0.642$ without correct acceptable statement | Note | — |
| Attempts to solve $\frac{1}{5}(2a-5) - \text{their } F(3)'' = 0.642$ leading to $a=\ldots$ | dM1 | Dependent on FIRST method mark; dM1 can also be given for $\frac{1}{5}(2a-5)=0.892$ or $1-\frac{1}{5}(2a-5)=0.108$ |
| $a = 4.73$ (or $x=4.73$) | A1 cao | Give M0A0M0A0 for $F(a)-(1-F(3))=0.642 \Rightarrow F(a)=1.392$; Give M0A0M0A0 for $\int_3^a \left(\frac{1}{10}x\right)dx=0.642$ (solves to give awrt 4.67) |

## Part (c)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| At least one of: $\frac{1}{20}(x^2-4) \to \pm\alpha x \pm \beta,\ \alpha\neq 0,\ \beta$ can be 0; or $\frac{1}{5}(2x-5) \to \pm\delta,\ \delta\neq 0$ | M1 | — |
| At least one of $\frac{1}{10}x$ or $\frac{2}{5}$ | $1^{\text{st}}$ A1 | Can be simplified or un-simplified |
| Both $\frac{1}{10}x$ and $\frac{2}{5}$ | $2^{\text{nd}}$ A1 | Can be simplified or un-simplified |
| All three lines with limits correctly followed through from their $F'(x)$ | dB1ft | Dependent on FIRST method mark; condone use of $<$ rather than $\leq$; $0$ otherwise equivalent to $0, x<2$ **and** $0, x>5$; accept $f$ expressed consistently in another variable e.g. $u$ |

---
\begin{enumerate}
  \item A continuous random variable $X$ has cumulative distribution function
\end{enumerate}

$$\mathrm { F } ( x ) = \left\{ \begin{array} { l r } 
0 & x < 2 \\
\frac { 1 } { 20 } \left( x ^ { 2 } - 4 \right) & 2 \leqslant x \leqslant 4 \\
\frac { 1 } { 5 } ( 2 x - 5 ) & 4 < x \leqslant 5 \\
1 & x > 5
\end{array} \right.$$

(a) Calculate $\mathrm { P } ( X > 4 )$\\
(c) Find the probability density function of $X$, specifying it for all values of $x$.\\
(b) Find the value of $a$ such that $\mathrm { P } ( 3 < X < a ) = 0.642$\\
(c) Find the probability density function of $X$, specifying it for all values of $x$.\\

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S2 2015 Q1 [10]}}