| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | S1 (Statistics 1) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 14 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Discrete Probability Distributions |
| Type | Multiple unknowns from expectation and variance |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a standard S1 probability distribution question requiring systematic application of expectation and variance formulas. Part (a) uses symmetry observation, parts (b-d) involve routine algebraic manipulation of E(X) and Var(X) formulas, part (e) applies standard linear transformation rules, and part (f) requires simple inequality solving. While multi-part with several steps, each component is textbook-standard with no novel insight required, making it slightly easier than average. |
| Spec | 2.04a Discrete probability distributions5.02b Expectation and variance: discrete random variables5.02c Linear coding: effects on mean and variance5.02d Binomial: mean np and variance np(1-p) |
| \(x\) | - 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| \(\mathrm { P } ( X = x )\) | \(b\) | \(a\) | \(a\) | \(a\) | \(b\) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| The distribution is symmetric about the value 2 | B1 cso | For argument using symmetry "distribution is symmetric" B1. "probs are symmetric" B0. "it is symmetric" is B0. Or a correct expression \((6a+4b)\) and use of sum of probs \(=1\) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| Sum of probs \(= 1\) (or use of \(E(X)=2\)) leading to \(3a + 2b = 1\) | B1 | For \(3a+2b=1\) (o.e.) (any equivalent correct equation, needn't be simplified) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| \(E(X^2) = (-1)^2b + 2^2a + 4^2a + 5^2b \ [= 20a+26b \text{ ...condone } 24b]\) | M1 | For a full expression for \(E(X^2)\). Condone \(-1^2b\)... or \(20a+26b\) or \(20a+24b\). Allow \(\text{Var}(X)\) called \(E(X^2)\). M0 for \(\frac{20a+26b}{5}\) unless you see \(E(X^2)=20a+26b\) (o.e.) first |
| \(7.1 = 20a + \text{``}26\text{''}b - 2^2\) or \(7.1 = 20a + \text{``}26\text{''}b - (6a+4b)^2\) or \(7.1 = 8a+18b\) | M1 | For use of the correct formula to form an equation for \(a\) and \(b\), ft their \(E(X^2)\) |
| \(11.1 = 20a + 26b\) | A1 | For \(11.1 = 20a+26b\) (or equivalent but must be only 3 non-zero terms) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| e.g. (b)\(\times13\) and subtract (c) yielding: \(1.9 = 19a\) | M1 | For solving their 2 linear equations in \(a\) and \(b\) and reducing to an equation in one variable. Condone 1 arithmetic or sign error |
| \(a = \mathbf{0.1}\) and \(b = \mathbf{0.35}\) | A1, A1 | For \(a=0.10\) or exact equivalent. For \(b=0.35\) or exact equivalent. One correct value scores M1 and the relevant A1 and both correct scores 3/3 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| \([E(Y) = 10 - 3E(X) = 10-3\times2] = \mathbf{4}\) | B1 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| \([\text{Var}(Y)] = (-3)^2\text{Var}(X)\) | M1 | For correct use of the \(\text{Var}(aX+b)\) formula. Condone \(-3^2\) if it later becomes \(+9\). Or \([E(Y^2)] = 79.9\) and \([\text{Var}(Y)] = 79.9 -\) their \((E(Y))^2\) |
| \(= \mathbf{63.9}\) | A1 | For 63.9 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| \(Y > X\) gives: \(10-3X > X\) leading to \(10 > 3X+X\) or \(Y > 2.5\) or \(X < 2.5\) | M1 | For an attempt to solve the linear inequality leading to \(10>3X+X\) or \(Y>2.5\) or \(Y\geqslant4\) |
| \(X < 2.5\) means \(X = -1\), 0 and 2 | A1 | For the correct 3 values of \(X\) or prob. dist. for \(Y\) and \(y=4,10,13\) or \(P(X<2.5)=2a+b\) |
| \(P(Y>X) = 2a+b = \mathbf{0.55}\) or \(\frac{11}{20}\) (o.e.) | A1ft | For an answer \(=\) their \(2a+b\) provided \(a\), \(b\) and \(2a+b\) are probabilities. Must be a value. BUT \(2a+b\) only is M0 |
# Question 5:
## Part (a):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| The distribution is symmetric about the value 2 | B1 cso | For argument using symmetry "distribution is symmetric" B1. "probs are symmetric" B0. "it is symmetric" is B0. Or a correct expression $(6a+4b)$ and use of sum of probs $=1$ |
## Part (b):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Sum of probs $= 1$ (or use of $E(X)=2$) leading to $3a + 2b = 1$ | B1 | For $3a+2b=1$ (o.e.) (any equivalent correct equation, needn't be simplified) |
## Part (c):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $E(X^2) = (-1)^2b + 2^2a + 4^2a + 5^2b \ [= 20a+26b \text{ ...condone } 24b]$ | M1 | For a full expression for $E(X^2)$. Condone $-1^2b$... or $20a+26b$ or $20a+24b$. Allow $\text{Var}(X)$ called $E(X^2)$. M0 for $\frac{20a+26b}{5}$ unless you see $E(X^2)=20a+26b$ (o.e.) first |
| $7.1 = 20a + \text{``}26\text{''}b - 2^2$ or $7.1 = 20a + \text{``}26\text{''}b - (6a+4b)^2$ or $7.1 = 8a+18b$ | M1 | For use of the correct formula to form an equation for $a$ and $b$, ft their $E(X^2)$ |
| $11.1 = 20a + 26b$ | A1 | For $11.1 = 20a+26b$ (or equivalent but must be only 3 non-zero terms) |
## Part (d):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| e.g. (b)$\times13$ and subtract (c) yielding: $1.9 = 19a$ | M1 | For solving their 2 linear equations in $a$ and $b$ and reducing to an equation in one variable. Condone 1 arithmetic or sign error |
| $a = \mathbf{0.1}$ and $b = \mathbf{0.35}$ | A1, A1 | For $a=0.10$ or exact equivalent. For $b=0.35$ or exact equivalent. One correct value scores M1 and the relevant A1 and both correct scores 3/3 |
## Part (e)(i):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $[E(Y) = 10 - 3E(X) = 10-3\times2] = \mathbf{4}$ | B1 | |
## Part (e)(ii):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $[\text{Var}(Y)] = (-3)^2\text{Var}(X)$ | M1 | For correct use of the $\text{Var}(aX+b)$ formula. Condone $-3^2$ if it later becomes $+9$. Or $[E(Y^2)] = 79.9$ and $[\text{Var}(Y)] = 79.9 -$ their $(E(Y))^2$ |
| $= \mathbf{63.9}$ | A1 | For 63.9 |
## Part (f):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $Y > X$ gives: $10-3X > X$ leading to $10 > 3X+X$ or $Y > 2.5$ or $X < 2.5$ | M1 | For an attempt to solve the linear inequality leading to $10>3X+X$ or $Y>2.5$ or $Y\geqslant4$ |
| $X < 2.5$ means $X = -1$, 0 and 2 | A1 | For the correct 3 values of $X$ or prob. dist. for $Y$ and $y=4,10,13$ or $P(X<2.5)=2a+b$ |
| $P(Y>X) = 2a+b = \mathbf{0.55}$ or $\frac{11}{20}$ (o.e.) | A1ft | For an answer $=$ their $2a+b$ provided $a$, $b$ and $2a+b$ are probabilities. Must be a value. BUT $2a+b$ only is M0 |
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5. The score when a spinner is spun is given by the discrete random variable $X$ with the following probability distribution, where $a$ and $b$ are probabilities.
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | c | c | c | }
\hline
$x$ & - 1 & 0 & 2 & 4 & 5 \\
\hline
$\mathrm { P } ( X = x )$ & $b$ & $a$ & $a$ & $a$ & $b$ \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Explain why $\mathrm { E } ( X ) = 2$
\item Find a linear equation in $a$ and $b$.
Given that $\operatorname { Var } ( X ) = 7.1$
\item find a second equation in $a$ and $b$ and simplify your answer.
\item Solve your two equations to find the value of $a$ and the value of $b$.
The discrete random variable $Y = 10 - 3 X$
\item Find
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item $\mathrm { E } ( Y )$
\item $\operatorname { Var } ( Y )$
The spinner is spun once.
\end{enumerate}\item Find $\mathrm { P } ( Y > X )$.
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S1 2018 Q5 [14]}}