Edexcel S1 2018 June — Question 5 14 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2018
SessionJune
Marks14
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicDiscrete Probability Distributions
TypeMultiple unknowns from expectation and variance
DifficultyStandard +0.3 This is a standard S1 probability distribution question requiring systematic application of expectation and variance formulas. Part (a) uses symmetry observation, parts (b-d) involve routine algebraic manipulation of E(X) and Var(X) formulas, part (e) applies standard linear transformation rules, and part (f) requires simple inequality solving. While multi-part with several steps, each component is textbook-standard with no novel insight required, making it slightly easier than average.
Spec2.04a Discrete probability distributions5.02b Expectation and variance: discrete random variables5.02c Linear coding: effects on mean and variance5.02d Binomial: mean np and variance np(1-p)

5. The score when a spinner is spun is given by the discrete random variable \(X\) with the following probability distribution, where \(a\) and \(b\) are probabilities.
\(x\)- 10245
\(\mathrm { P } ( X = x )\)\(b\)\(a\)\(a\)\(a\)\(b\)
  1. Explain why \(\mathrm { E } ( X ) = 2\)
  2. Find a linear equation in \(a\) and \(b\). Given that \(\operatorname { Var } ( X ) = 7.1\)
  3. find a second equation in \(a\) and \(b\) and simplify your answer.
  4. Solve your two equations to find the value of \(a\) and the value of \(b\). The discrete random variable \(Y = 10 - 3 X\)
  5. Find
    1. \(\mathrm { E } ( Y )\)
    2. \(\operatorname { Var } ( Y )\) The spinner is spun once.
  6. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( Y > X )\).

Question 5:
Part (a):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
The distribution is symmetric about the value 2B1 cso For argument using symmetry "distribution is symmetric" B1. "probs are symmetric" B0. "it is symmetric" is B0. Or a correct expression \((6a+4b)\) and use of sum of probs \(=1\)
Part (b):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
Sum of probs \(= 1\) (or use of \(E(X)=2\)) leading to \(3a + 2b = 1\)B1 For \(3a+2b=1\) (o.e.) (any equivalent correct equation, needn't be simplified)
Part (c):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\(E(X^2) = (-1)^2b + 2^2a + 4^2a + 5^2b \ [= 20a+26b \text{ ...condone } 24b]\)M1 For a full expression for \(E(X^2)\). Condone \(-1^2b\)... or \(20a+26b\) or \(20a+24b\). Allow \(\text{Var}(X)\) called \(E(X^2)\). M0 for \(\frac{20a+26b}{5}\) unless you see \(E(X^2)=20a+26b\) (o.e.) first
\(7.1 = 20a + \text{``}26\text{''}b - 2^2\) or \(7.1 = 20a + \text{``}26\text{''}b - (6a+4b)^2\) or \(7.1 = 8a+18b\)M1 For use of the correct formula to form an equation for \(a\) and \(b\), ft their \(E(X^2)\)
\(11.1 = 20a + 26b\)A1 For \(11.1 = 20a+26b\) (or equivalent but must be only 3 non-zero terms)
Part (d):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
e.g. (b)\(\times13\) and subtract (c) yielding: \(1.9 = 19a\)M1 For solving their 2 linear equations in \(a\) and \(b\) and reducing to an equation in one variable. Condone 1 arithmetic or sign error
\(a = \mathbf{0.1}\) and \(b = \mathbf{0.35}\)A1, A1 For \(a=0.10\) or exact equivalent. For \(b=0.35\) or exact equivalent. One correct value scores M1 and the relevant A1 and both correct scores 3/3
Part (e)(i):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\([E(Y) = 10 - 3E(X) = 10-3\times2] = \mathbf{4}\)B1
Part (e)(ii):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\([\text{Var}(Y)] = (-3)^2\text{Var}(X)\)M1 For correct use of the \(\text{Var}(aX+b)\) formula. Condone \(-3^2\) if it later becomes \(+9\). Or \([E(Y^2)] = 79.9\) and \([\text{Var}(Y)] = 79.9 -\) their \((E(Y))^2\)
\(= \mathbf{63.9}\)A1 For 63.9
Part (f):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\(Y > X\) gives: \(10-3X > X\) leading to \(10 > 3X+X\) or \(Y > 2.5\) or \(X < 2.5\)M1 For an attempt to solve the linear inequality leading to \(10>3X+X\) or \(Y>2.5\) or \(Y\geqslant4\)
\(X < 2.5\) means \(X = -1\), 0 and 2A1 For the correct 3 values of \(X\) or prob. dist. for \(Y\) and \(y=4,10,13\) or \(P(X<2.5)=2a+b\)
\(P(Y>X) = 2a+b = \mathbf{0.55}\) or \(\frac{11}{20}\) (o.e.)A1ft For an answer \(=\) their \(2a+b\) provided \(a\), \(b\) and \(2a+b\) are probabilities. Must be a value. BUT \(2a+b\) only is M0
# Question 5:

## Part (a):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| The distribution is symmetric about the value 2 | B1 cso | For argument using symmetry "distribution is symmetric" B1. "probs are symmetric" B0. "it is symmetric" is B0. Or a correct expression $(6a+4b)$ and use of sum of probs $=1$ |

## Part (b):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Sum of probs $= 1$ (or use of $E(X)=2$) leading to $3a + 2b = 1$ | B1 | For $3a+2b=1$ (o.e.) (any equivalent correct equation, needn't be simplified) |

## Part (c):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $E(X^2) = (-1)^2b + 2^2a + 4^2a + 5^2b \ [= 20a+26b \text{ ...condone } 24b]$ | M1 | For a full expression for $E(X^2)$. Condone $-1^2b$... or $20a+26b$ or $20a+24b$. Allow $\text{Var}(X)$ called $E(X^2)$. M0 for $\frac{20a+26b}{5}$ unless you see $E(X^2)=20a+26b$ (o.e.) first |
| $7.1 = 20a + \text{``}26\text{''}b - 2^2$ or $7.1 = 20a + \text{``}26\text{''}b - (6a+4b)^2$ or $7.1 = 8a+18b$ | M1 | For use of the correct formula to form an equation for $a$ and $b$, ft their $E(X^2)$ |
| $11.1 = 20a + 26b$ | A1 | For $11.1 = 20a+26b$ (or equivalent but must be only 3 non-zero terms) |

## Part (d):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| e.g. (b)$\times13$ and subtract (c) yielding: $1.9 = 19a$ | M1 | For solving their 2 linear equations in $a$ and $b$ and reducing to an equation in one variable. Condone 1 arithmetic or sign error |
| $a = \mathbf{0.1}$ and $b = \mathbf{0.35}$ | A1, A1 | For $a=0.10$ or exact equivalent. For $b=0.35$ or exact equivalent. One correct value scores M1 and the relevant A1 and both correct scores 3/3 |

## Part (e)(i):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $[E(Y) = 10 - 3E(X) = 10-3\times2] = \mathbf{4}$ | B1 | |

## Part (e)(ii):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $[\text{Var}(Y)] = (-3)^2\text{Var}(X)$ | M1 | For correct use of the $\text{Var}(aX+b)$ formula. Condone $-3^2$ if it later becomes $+9$. Or $[E(Y^2)] = 79.9$ and $[\text{Var}(Y)] = 79.9 -$ their $(E(Y))^2$ |
| $= \mathbf{63.9}$ | A1 | For 63.9 |

## Part (f):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $Y > X$ gives: $10-3X > X$ leading to $10 > 3X+X$ or $Y > 2.5$ or $X < 2.5$ | M1 | For an attempt to solve the linear inequality leading to $10>3X+X$ or $Y>2.5$ or $Y\geqslant4$ |
| $X < 2.5$ means $X = -1$, 0 and 2 | A1 | For the correct 3 values of $X$ or prob. dist. for $Y$ and $y=4,10,13$ or $P(X<2.5)=2a+b$ |
| $P(Y>X) = 2a+b = \mathbf{0.55}$ or $\frac{11}{20}$ (o.e.) | A1ft | For an answer $=$ their $2a+b$ provided $a$, $b$ and $2a+b$ are probabilities. Must be a value. BUT $2a+b$ only is M0 |

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5. The score when a spinner is spun is given by the discrete random variable $X$ with the following probability distribution, where $a$ and $b$ are probabilities.

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | c | c | c | }
\hline
$x$ & - 1 & 0 & 2 & 4 & 5 \\
\hline
$\mathrm { P } ( X = x )$ & $b$ & $a$ & $a$ & $a$ & $b$ \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Explain why $\mathrm { E } ( X ) = 2$
\item Find a linear equation in $a$ and $b$.

Given that $\operatorname { Var } ( X ) = 7.1$
\item find a second equation in $a$ and $b$ and simplify your answer.
\item Solve your two equations to find the value of $a$ and the value of $b$.

The discrete random variable $Y = 10 - 3 X$
\item Find
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item $\mathrm { E } ( Y )$
\item $\operatorname { Var } ( Y )$

The spinner is spun once.
\end{enumerate}\item Find $\mathrm { P } ( Y > X )$.
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S1 2018 Q5 [14]}}