Edexcel S1 2002 June — Question 3 12 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2002
SessionJune
Marks12
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Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicConditional Probability
TypeStandard Bayes with discrete events
DifficultyModerate -0.8 This is a straightforward S1 conditional probability question with standard Bayes' theorem application. Parts (a)-(b) test basic definitions, part (c) is direct multiplication, part (d) requires organizing given information into a Venn diagram, and part (e) uses the law of total probability. All steps are routine with no novel insight required, making it easier than average but not trivial due to the multi-part structure.
Spec2.03b Probability diagrams: tree, Venn, sample space2.03c Conditional probability: using diagrams/tables2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles

3. For the events \(A\) and \(B\),
  1. explain in words the meaning of the term \(\mathrm { P } \left( \begin{array} { l l } B & A \end{array} \right)\),
  2. sketch a Venn diagram to illustrate the relationship \(\mathrm { P } \left( \begin{array} { l l } B & A \end{array} \right) = 0\). Three companies operate a bus service along a busy main road. Amber buses run \(50 \%\) of the service and \(2 \%\) of their buses are more than 5 minutes late. Blunder buses run \(30 \%\) of the service and \(10 \%\) of their buses are more than 5 minutes late. Clipper buses run the remainder of the service and only \(1 \%\) of their buses run more than 5 minutes late. Jean is waiting for a bus on the main road.
  3. Find the probability that the first bus to arrive is an Amber bus that is more than 5 minutes late. Let \(A , B\) and \(C\) denote the events that Jean catches an Amber bus, a Blunder bus and a Clipper bus respectively. Let \(L\) denote the event that Jean catches a bus that is more than 5 minutes late.
  4. Draw a Venn diagram to represent the events \(A , B , \mathrm { C }\) and \(L\). Calculate the probabilities associated with each region and write them in the appropriate places on the Venn diagram.
  5. Find the probability that Jean catches a bus that is more than 5 minutes late.

3. For the events $A$ and $B$,
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item explain in words the meaning of the term $\mathrm { P } \left( \begin{array} { l l } B & A \end{array} \right)$,
\item sketch a Venn diagram to illustrate the relationship $\mathrm { P } \left( \begin{array} { l l } B & A \end{array} \right) = 0$.

Three companies operate a bus service along a busy main road. Amber buses run $50 \%$ of the service and $2 \%$ of their buses are more than 5 minutes late. Blunder buses run $30 \%$ of the service and $10 \%$ of their buses are more than 5 minutes late. Clipper buses run the remainder of the service and only $1 \%$ of their buses run more than 5 minutes late.

Jean is waiting for a bus on the main road.
\item Find the probability that the first bus to arrive is an Amber bus that is more than 5 minutes late.

Let $A , B$ and $C$ denote the events that Jean catches an Amber bus, a Blunder bus and a Clipper bus respectively. Let $L$ denote the event that Jean catches a bus that is more than 5 minutes late.
\item Draw a Venn diagram to represent the events $A , B , \mathrm { C }$ and $L$. Calculate the probabilities associated with each region and write them in the appropriate places on the Venn diagram.
\item Find the probability that Jean catches a bus that is more than 5 minutes late.
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S1 2002 Q3 [12]}}