OCR D2 2013 January — Question 5 12 marks

Exam BoardOCR
ModuleD2 (Decision Mathematics 2)
Year2013
SessionJanuary
Marks12
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicGroups
DifficultyModerate -1.0 This is a standard game theory question from Decision Mathematics involving dominance, play-safe strategies, and linear programming setup. While it requires multiple steps, each part follows routine procedures taught in D2: identifying dominated strategies, finding maximin/minimax values, and interpreting LP constraints. The concepts are mechanical rather than requiring deep mathematical insight, making it easier than average A-level questions.
Spec7.08a Pay-off matrix: zero-sum games7.08b Dominance: reduce pay-off matrix7.08c Pure strategies: play-safe strategies and stable solutions7.08d Nash equilibrium: identification and interpretation7.08e Mixed strategies: optimal strategy using equations or graphical method7.08f Mixed strategies via LP: reformulate as linear programming problem

5 Rose and Colin are playing a game in which they each have four cards. Each player chooses a card from those in their hand, and simultaneously they show each other the cards they have chosen. The table below shows how many points Rose wins for each combination of cards. In each case the number of points that Colin wins is the negative of the entry in the table. Both Rose and Colin are trying to win as many points as possible.
Colin's card
\(\circ\)\(\square\)\(\diamond\)\(\triangle\)
\cline { 2 - 6 }\(\bullet\)- 23- 41
\cline { 2 - 6 } Rose's\(\square\)4- 345
\cline { 2 - 6 } card\(\diamond\)2- 5- 2- 1
\cline { 2 - 6 }\(\triangle\)- 65- 5- 3
\cline { 2 - 6 }
  1. What is the greatest number of points that Colin can win when Rose chooses and which card does Colin need to choose to achieve this?
  2. Explain why Rose should never choose and find the card that Colin should never choose. Hence reduce the game to a \(3 \times 3\) pay-off matrix.
  3. Find the play-safe strategy for each player on the reduced game and show whether or not the game is stable. Rose makes a random choice between her cards, choosing with probability \(x\) with probability \(y\), and with probability \(z\). She formulates the following LP problem to be solved using the Simplex algorithm:
    maximise \(\quad M = m - 6\),
    subject to \(\quad m \leqslant 4 x + 10 y\), \(n \leqslant 9 x + 3 y + 11 z\), \(n \leqslant 2 x + 10 y + z\), \(x + y + z \leqslant 1\),
    and \(x \geqslant 0 , y \geqslant 0 , z \geqslant 0 , m \geqslant 0\).
    (You are not required to solve this problem.)
  4. Explain how \(9 x + 3 y + 11 z\) was obtained. The Simplex algorithm is used to solve the LP problem. The solution has \(x = \frac { 7 } { 48 } , y = \frac { 27 } { 48 } , z = \frac { 14 } { 48 }\).
  5. Calculate the optimal value of \(M\).

5 Rose and Colin are playing a game in which they each have four cards. Each player chooses a card from those in their hand, and simultaneously they show each other the cards they have chosen. The table below shows how many points Rose wins for each combination of cards. In each case the number of points that Colin wins is the negative of the entry in the table. Both Rose and Colin are trying to win as many points as possible.

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ c r | r | r | r | r }
 &  & \multicolumn{4}{c}{Colin's card} \\
 &  & $\circ$ & \multicolumn{1}{c}{$\square$} & $\diamond$ & $\triangle$ \\
\cline { 2 - 6 }
 & $\bullet$ & - 2 & 3 & - 4 & 1 \\
\cline { 2 - 6 }
Rose's & $\square$ & 4 & - 3 & 4 & 5 \\
\cline { 2 - 6 }
card & $\diamond$ & 2 & - 5 & - 2 & - 1 \\
\cline { 2 - 6 }
 & $\triangle$ & - 6 & 5 & - 5 & - 3 \\
\cline { 2 - 6 }
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

(i) What is the greatest number of points that Colin can win when Rose chooses and which card does Colin need to choose to achieve this?\\
(ii) Explain why Rose should never choose and find the card that Colin should never choose. Hence reduce the game to a $3 \times 3$ pay-off matrix.\\
(iii) Find the play-safe strategy for each player on the reduced game and show whether or not the game is stable.

Rose makes a random choice between her cards, choosing with probability $x$ with probability $y$, and with probability $z$. She formulates the following LP problem to be solved using the Simplex algorithm:\\
maximise $\quad M = m - 6$,\\
subject to $\quad m \leqslant 4 x + 10 y$,\\
$n \leqslant 9 x + 3 y + 11 z$,\\
$n \leqslant 2 x + 10 y + z$,\\
$x + y + z \leqslant 1$,\\
and\\
$x \geqslant 0 , y \geqslant 0 , z \geqslant 0 , m \geqslant 0$.\\
(You are not required to solve this problem.)\\
(iv) Explain how $9 x + 3 y + 11 z$ was obtained.

The Simplex algorithm is used to solve the LP problem. The solution has $x = \frac { 7 } { 48 } , y = \frac { 27 } { 48 } , z = \frac { 14 } { 48 }$.\\
(v) Calculate the optimal value of $M$.

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR D2 2013 Q5 [12]}}