| Exam Board | OCR MEI |
|---|---|
| Module | S2 (Statistics 2) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 18 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Chi-squared test of independence |
| Type | Interpret association after test |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a standard chi-squared test of independence with clearly structured data. Part (i) requires routine calculation of expected frequencies and test statistic with 4 degrees of freedom. Parts (ii)-(iv) involve straightforward interpretation and comparison. The question is slightly easier than average as it's a textbook application with no conceptual surprises, though the multi-part structure and table of contributions adds some work. |
| Spec | 5.06a Chi-squared: contingency tables |
| \cline { 3 - 5 } \multicolumn{2}{c|}{} | Working days lost | |||
| \cline { 3 - 5 } \multicolumn{2}{c|}{} | 0 to 4 | 5 to 9 | 10 or more | |
| \multirow{3}{*}{Age} | Under 35 | 31 | 27 | 4 |
| \cline { 2 - 5 } | 35 to 50 | 28 | 32 | 8 |
| \cline { 2 - 5 } | Over 50 | 16 | 28 | 16 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| \(H_0\): no association between age and working days lost \(H_1\): some association between age and working days lost | B1 | For hypotheses, at least one of which is in context. Allow hypotheses in terms of independence, in context. Do not allow "relationship" or "correlation" for "association". |
| Expected values table: Under 35: 24.47, 28.39, 9.14; 35 to 50: 26.84, 31.14, 10.02; Over 50: 23.68, 27.47, 8.84 | B1 | For at least one row/column of expected values correct (to 1 d.p.). Seen or implied by contributions. |
| All expected values correct (to 2 d.p.) | B1 | All correct (to 2 d.p.). Accept fraction equivalents. Seen or implied by contributions. |
| Contributions table: Under 35: 1.7404, 0.0680, 2.8880; 35 to 50: 0.0499, 0.0239, 0.4076; Over 50: 2.4931, 0.0101, 5.7945 | M1 | For valid attempt at \((O-E)^2/E\). Seen or implied by at least one correct contribution to 2 d.p. Allow 5.80 for last cell. Condone values in a list. |
| \(X^2 = 13.48\) | A1 | For all correct to 2 d.p. or better. Allow 5.80 for last cell. Condone values in a list. NB: These two marks cannot be implied by a correct final value of \(X^2\). |
| \(X^2 = 13.48\) | B1 | For answers rounding to 13.48. Do not penalize over-specification. |
| Refer to \(\chi^2_4\) | B1 | For 4 degrees of freedom. |
| Critical value at 1% level \(= 13.28\) | B1 | No further marks from here if incorrect. |
| \(13.48 > 13.28\) so result is significant | B1* | For significant oe. FT their test statistic. |
| There is evidence to suggest that there is some association between age and working days lost | E1dep* | For non-assertive conclusion in context. Allow conclusion in terms of independence. FT their test statistic. NB if \(H_0\ H_1\) reversed, or 'correlation' mentioned, do not award final E1. |
| [10] |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| The large contribution of 2.4931 implies that there are fewer employees than expected who lose 0 to 4 working days. | E1 | For correct interpretation with reference to contribution for 0 to 4 working days. |
| The small contribution of 0.0101 implies that there are about as many as expected who lose 5 to 9 working days. | E1 | For correct interpretation with reference to contribution for 5 to 9 working days. |
| The large contribution of 5.7945 implies that there are more employees than expected who lose more than 10 working days. | E1 | For correct interpretation with reference to contribution for more than 10 working days. SC1 if all interpretations are correct but with no reference to contributions, i.e. max 1 out of 3. |
| [3] |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| Critical value at 1% level \(= 9.21\) | B1* | CAO for cv. |
| \(7.08 < 9.21\) so the result is not significant oe | B1dep* | For correct conclusion. |
| There is insufficient evidence to suggest that there is an association between age and working days lost. | E1dep* | For non-assertive conclusion in context. |
| [3] |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| Conclusion in (iii) is valid if only categorizing working days lost into '0 to 4' and '5 or more'. | E1 | As written, or for explaining that combining/subdividing groups leads to a different result. |
| However, if '5 or more' is subdivided into '5 to 9' and '10 or more', this additional subdivision gives the data more precision and allows the relationship in part (i) to be revealed. | E1 | For subdivision allows relationship to be revealed or gives more precision/sensitivity/detail. Allow subdivision gives "a more reliable test" but not "a more accurate test". For both to be awarded, wording must be clear. |
| [2] |
## Question 4(i):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| $H_0$: no association between age and working days lost $H_1$: some association between age and working days lost | B1 | For hypotheses, at least one of which is in context. Allow hypotheses in terms of independence, in context. Do not allow "relationship" or "correlation" for "association". |
| Expected values table: Under 35: 24.47, 28.39, 9.14; 35 to 50: 26.84, 31.14, 10.02; Over 50: 23.68, 27.47, 8.84 | B1 | For at least one row/column of expected values correct (to 1 d.p.). Seen or implied by contributions. |
| All expected values correct (to 2 d.p.) | B1 | All correct (to 2 d.p.). Accept fraction equivalents. Seen or implied by contributions. |
| Contributions table: Under 35: 1.7404, 0.0680, 2.8880; 35 to 50: 0.0499, 0.0239, 0.4076; Over 50: 2.4931, 0.0101, 5.7945 | M1 | For valid attempt at $(O-E)^2/E$. Seen or implied by at least one correct contribution to 2 d.p. Allow 5.80 for last cell. Condone values in a list. |
| $X^2 = 13.48$ | A1 | For all correct to 2 d.p. or better. Allow 5.80 for last cell. Condone values in a list. NB: These two marks cannot be implied by a correct final value of $X^2$. |
| $X^2 = 13.48$ | B1 | For answers rounding to 13.48. Do not penalize over-specification. |
| Refer to $\chi^2_4$ | B1 | For 4 degrees of freedom. |
| Critical value at 1% level $= 13.28$ | B1 | No further marks from here if incorrect. |
| $13.48 > 13.28$ so result is significant | B1* | For significant oe. FT their test statistic. |
| There is evidence to **suggest** that there is some association between age and working days lost | E1dep* | For **non-assertive** conclusion in context. Allow conclusion in terms of independence. FT their test statistic. NB if $H_0\ H_1$ reversed, or 'correlation' mentioned, do not award final E1. |
| **[10]** | | |
---
## Question 4(ii):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| The large contribution of 2.4931 implies that there are fewer employees than expected who lose 0 to 4 working days. | E1 | For correct interpretation with reference to contribution for 0 to 4 working days. |
| The small contribution of 0.0101 implies that there are about as many as expected who lose 5 to 9 working days. | E1 | For correct interpretation with reference to contribution for 5 to 9 working days. |
| The large contribution of 5.7945 implies that there are more employees than expected who lose more than 10 working days. | E1 | For correct interpretation with reference to contribution for more than 10 working days. SC1 if all interpretations are correct but with no reference to contributions, i.e. max 1 out of 3. |
| **[3]** | | |
---
## Question 4(iii):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Critical value at 1% level $= 9.21$ | B1* | CAO for cv. |
| $7.08 < 9.21$ so the result is not significant oe | B1dep* | For correct conclusion. |
| There is insufficient evidence to **suggest** that there is an association between age and working days lost. | E1dep* | For **non-assertive** conclusion in context. |
| **[3]** | | |
---
## Question 4(iv):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Conclusion in (iii) is valid if only categorizing working days lost into '0 to 4' and '5 or more'. | E1 | As written, or for explaining that **combining/subdividing groups** leads to a **different** result. |
| However, if '5 or more' is subdivided into '5 to 9' and '10 or more', this additional subdivision gives the data more precision and allows the relationship in part (i) to be revealed. | E1 | For **subdivision** allows relationship to be revealed or gives more precision/sensitivity/detail. Allow subdivision gives "a more reliable test" but not "a more accurate test". For both to be awarded, wording must be **clear**. |
| **[2]** | | |
4 A researcher at a large company thinks that there may be some relationship between the numbers of working days lost due to illness per year and the ages of the workers in the company. The researcher selects a random sample of 190 workers. The ages of the workers and numbers of days lost for a period of 1 year are summarised below.
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | c | c | }
\cline { 3 - 5 }
\multicolumn{2}{c|}{} & \multicolumn{3}{|c|}{Working days lost} \\
\cline { 3 - 5 }
\multicolumn{2}{c|}{} & 0 to 4 & 5 to 9 & 10 or more \\
\hline
\multirow{3}{*}{Age} & Under 35 & 31 & 27 & 4 \\
\cline { 2 - 5 }
& 35 to 50 & 28 & 32 & 8 \\
\cline { 2 - 5 }
& Over 50 & 16 & 28 & 16 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
(i) Carry out a test at the $1 \%$ significance level to investigate whether the researcher's belief appears to be true. Your working should include a table showing the contributions of each cell to the test statistic.\\
(ii) For the 'Over 50' age group, comment briefly on how the working days lost compare with what would be expected if there were no association.\\
(iii) A student decides to reclassify the 'working days lost' into two groups, ' 0 to 4 ' and ' 5 or more', but leave the age groups as before. The test statistic with this classification is 7.08 . Carry out the test at the $1 \%$ level with this new classification, using the same hypotheses as for the original test.\\
(iv) Comment on the results of the two tests.
\section*{END OF QUESTION PAPER}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR MEI S2 2014 Q4 [18]}}