| Exam Board | OCR |
|---|---|
| Module | S2 (Statistics 2) |
| Year | 2011 |
| Session | January |
| Marks | 10 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Poisson distribution |
| Type | Explain or apply conditions in context |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This question tests understanding of Poisson conditions and standard calculations. Part (i) requires explaining independence in context (conceptual but straightforward), part (ii) is routine Poisson probability calculation, and part (iii) involves recognizing that sum of Poisson variables follows Poisson distribution and applying normal approximation—all standard S2 techniques with no novel problem-solving required. |
| Spec | 5.02i Poisson distribution: random events model5.02k Calculate Poisson probabilities5.02n Sum of Poisson variables: is Poisson |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| (i) Answer that shows correct understanding of "independent", in context; not just equivalent to "single" | B1 | Answer that shows correct understanding of "independent", in context; not just equivalent to "single" |
| 2 | Plausible reason, in context, nothing wrong, nothing that suggests "constant average rate" | |
| (ii) \(0.1730\) | M1 | Correct use of tables or formula, e.g. 3007, or 4405 from Po(5) |
| A1 | if Po(7) stated; answer 0.173, 0.1730 or better | |
| 2 | ||
| (iii) \(Po(35)\) | B1 | \(Po(5 \times 7)\) stated or implied |
| \(N(35, 35)\) | M1 | Normal, \(\mu = \) their \(\lambda\) |
| A1 | Both parameters correct, allow \(35^2\), \(\sqrt{35}\) | |
| \(1 - \Phi\left(\frac{40 - 35}{\sqrt{35}}\right) = 1 - \Phi(0.9297)\) | M1 | Standardise 40 with \(\lambda\), \(\sqrt{\lambda}\), allow √, cc errors |
| A1 | Both \(\sqrt{\lambda}\) and cc correct | |
| A1 | Answer, a.r.t. 0.176 [penalise 0.1765] | |
| 6 | ||
| (iv) Must be "values taken by \(T\)" [or "set \(T\)"] or clear equivalent | B1 | Must be "values taken by \(T\)" [or "set \(T\)"] or clear equivalent |
| Any hint that they think \(T\) is an event gives B0. | 1 |
**(i)** Answer that shows correct understanding of "independent", in context; not just equivalent to "single" | B1 | Answer that shows correct understanding of "independent", in context; not just equivalent to "single"
| | 2 | Plausible reason, in context, nothing wrong, nothing that suggests "constant average rate"
**(ii)** $0.1730$ | M1 | Correct use of tables or formula, e.g. 3007, or 4405 from Po(5)
| A1 | if Po(7) stated; answer 0.173, 0.1730 or better
| | 2
**(iii)** $Po(35)$ | B1 | $Po(5 \times 7)$ stated or implied
$N(35, 35)$ | M1 | Normal, $\mu = $ their $\lambda$
| A1 | Both parameters correct, allow $35^2$, $\sqrt{35}$
$1 - \Phi\left(\frac{40 - 35}{\sqrt{35}}\right) = 1 - \Phi(0.9297)$ | M1 | Standardise 40 with $\lambda$, $\sqrt{\lambda}$, allow √, cc errors
| A1 | Both $\sqrt{\lambda}$ and cc correct
| A1 | Answer, a.r.t. 0.176 [penalise 0.1765]
| | 6
**(iv)** Must be "values taken by $T$" [or "set $T$"] or clear equivalent | B1 | Must be "values taken by $T$" [or "set $T$"] or clear equivalent
Any hint that they think $T$ is an event gives B0. | | 1 | α "Same chance of occurring anywhere between 1 and 3": 0; β "For values of $T$ between 1 and 3, $T$ is equally likely": 0; γ "Each value of $T$ is equally likely to occur": I
6 The number of randomly occurring events in a given time interval is denoted by $R$. In order that $R$ is well modelled by a Poisson distribution, it is necessary that events occur independently.\\
(i) Let $R$ represent the number of customers dining at a restaurant on a randomly chosen weekday lunchtime. Explain what the condition 'events occur independently' means in this context, and give a reason why it would probably not hold in this context.
Let $D$ represent the number of tables booked at the restaurant on a randomly chosen day. Assume that $D$ can be well modelled by distribution $\operatorname { Po } ( 7 )$.\\
(ii) Find $\mathrm { P } ( D < 5 )$.\\
(iii) Use a suitable approximation to find the probability that, in five randomly chosen days, the total number of tables booked is greater than 40 .
\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR S2 2011 Q6 [10]}}