| Exam Board | OCR MEI |
|---|---|
| Module | S1 (Statistics 1) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 19 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Data representation |
| Type | Outliers from box plot or summary statistics |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a straightforward multi-part question combining basic box plot interpretation (finding IQR and checking outliers using the 1.5×IQR rule) with standard probability calculations involving combinations and conditional probability. All parts use routine techniques taught in S1 with no novel problem-solving required, making it slightly easier than average. |
| Spec | 2.02a Interpret single variable data: tables and diagrams2.02f Measures of average and spread2.02h Recognize outliers2.03c Conditional probability: using diagrams/tables2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles5.01a Permutations and combinations: evaluate probabilities |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| Inter-quartile range \(=18.1-17.8=0.3\) | B1 | |
| Lower limit \(17.8-(1.5\times 0.3)=17.35\); No outliers at lower end | M1 | FT their IQR for M marks only |
| A1 | dep on 17.35; allow 'No values below 17.35 for first A1'; allow 'Lower limit \(=17.35\) so no outliers (at lower end)' | |
| Upper limit \(18.1+(1.5\times 0.3)=18.55\); (Max is 18.6) so at least one outlier at upper end | M1 | |
| A1 | dep on 18.55; allow 'At least one value above 18.55' or 'any value above 18.55 is an outlier' | |
| [5] | Do not allow 'There MAY be one outlier'; condone 'one outlier'; watch for use of median giving M0A0 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| \(P(A)=P(\text{All 3 have orange centres})=\frac{7}{20}\times\frac{6}{19}\times\frac{5}{18}=\frac{7}{228}\) | M1 | For \(\frac{7}{20}\times\) |
| M1 | For product of correct three fractions without extra terms | |
| \(=0.0307\) (0.030702) | A1 | CAO; allow full marks for fully simplified fractional answers |
| Alternative: \(\frac{^7C_3}{^{20}C_3}=\frac{35}{1140}=\frac{7}{228}=0.0307\) | M1,M1,A1 | |
| \(P(B)=P(\text{All 3 have same centres})=\) | ||
| \(\left(\frac{7}{20}\times\frac{6}{19}\times\frac{5}{18}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\right)+\left(\frac{4}{20}\times\frac{3}{19}\times\frac{2}{18}\right)+\left(\frac{3}{20}\times\frac{2}{19}\times\frac{1}{18}\right)\) | M1 | For at least two correct triple products or fractions or decimals |
| \(=0.0307+0.0175+0.0035+0.0009\) | M1 | For sum of all four correct |
| \(=0.0526=\frac{1}{19}\) (0.052632) \(\left(=\frac{7}{228}+\frac{1}{57}+\frac{1}{285}+\frac{1}{1140}\right)\) | A1 | CAO; allow 0.053 or anything which rounds up to 0.053 with working |
| [6] | Please check all of the answer space for this part |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| \(P(A\mid B)=\frac{0.0307\ldots}{0.0526\ldots}\) | M1 | For their \(A\) divided by their \(B\); allow 0.584 from \(\frac{0.0307}{0.0526}\) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| P(All have orange centres) \(= 0.0307^2 = 0.00094\) or \(= \frac{49}{51984}\) \(= (0.00094260)\) | M1 | For their \(0.0307^2\); Allow \(9.4 \times 10^{-4}\), condone 0.0009 or \(9 \times 10^{-4}\) |
| A1 [2] | FT |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| \(P(\text{Has to select} > 2) = 1 - P(\text{Has to select} \leq 2)\) \(= 1 - \left(\frac{14}{20} + \left(\frac{6}{20} \times \frac{14}{19}\right)\right) = 1-(0.7+0.221) = 1-0.921\) | M1 | For \(\left(\frac{6}{20} \times \frac{14}{19}\right)\); For any of the methods below allow SC2 for \(1 - 0.079 = 0.921\) or \(1 - 3/38 = 35/38\) o.e. as final answer |
| \(= 0.079 \quad (=0.078947)\) | M1, A1 [3] | For \(1 -\) sum of both CAO; This is \(1 - P(C' + CC')\) |
| OR \(P(\text{Has to select} > 2) = P(\text{First 2 both cherry}) = \left(\frac{6}{20} \times \frac{5}{19}\right)\) | M2 | For whole product; Without extra terms added. M1 if multiplied by \(k/18\) only where \(0 < k < 18\) (seen as a triple product only) |
| \(= 0.079 \quad = \frac{3}{38}\) | A1 | CAO; This is \(P(CC)\) |
| OR \(1-(P(0 \text{ cherries}) + P(1 \text{ cherry}))=\) \(1-\left(\frac{14}{20}\times\frac{13}{19}+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{14}{19}\right)+\left(\frac{14}{20}\times\frac{6}{19}\right)\right)\) \(= 1-(0.4789+0.2211+0.2211) = 1-0.9209\) | M1, M1 | For any term; For \(1 -\) sum of all three; This is \(1 - P(C'C' + CC' + C'C)\) |
| \(= 0.079\) | A1 | CAO |
| OR \(\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{14}{18}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\times\frac{14}{17}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\times\frac{3}{17}\times\frac{14}{16}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\times\frac{3}{17}\times\frac{2}{16}\times\frac{14}{15}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\times\frac{3}{17}\times\frac{2}{16}\times\frac{1}{15}\times\frac{14}{14}\right)\) \(= \frac{7}{114}+\frac{14}{969}+\frac{7}{2584}+\frac{7}{19380}+\frac{1}{38760}\) \(= 0.079\) | M1, A1 | For any term (all correct); For sum of all five terms (all correct); CAO |
# Question 8(i):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Inter-quartile range $=18.1-17.8=0.3$ | B1 | |
| Lower limit $17.8-(1.5\times 0.3)=17.35$; No outliers at lower end | M1 | FT their IQR for M marks only |
| | A1 | dep on 17.35; allow 'No values below 17.35 for first A1'; allow 'Lower limit $=17.35$ so no outliers (at lower end)' |
| Upper limit $18.1+(1.5\times 0.3)=18.55$; (Max is 18.6) so at least one outlier at upper end | M1 | |
| | A1 | dep on 18.55; allow 'At least one value above 18.55' or 'any value above 18.55 is an outlier' |
| **[5]** | | Do not allow 'There MAY be one outlier'; condone 'one outlier'; watch for use of median giving M0A0 |
---
# Question 8(ii):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| $P(A)=P(\text{All 3 have orange centres})=\frac{7}{20}\times\frac{6}{19}\times\frac{5}{18}=\frac{7}{228}$ | M1 | For $\frac{7}{20}\times$ |
| | M1 | For product of correct three fractions without extra terms |
| $=0.0307$ (0.030702) | A1 | CAO; allow full marks for fully simplified fractional answers |
| Alternative: $\frac{^7C_3}{^{20}C_3}=\frac{35}{1140}=\frac{7}{228}=0.0307$ | M1,M1,A1 | |
| $P(B)=P(\text{All 3 have same centres})=$ | | |
| $\left(\frac{7}{20}\times\frac{6}{19}\times\frac{5}{18}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\right)+\left(\frac{4}{20}\times\frac{3}{19}\times\frac{2}{18}\right)+\left(\frac{3}{20}\times\frac{2}{19}\times\frac{1}{18}\right)$ | M1 | For at least two correct triple products or fractions or decimals |
| $=0.0307+0.0175+0.0035+0.0009$ | M1 | For sum of all four correct |
| $=0.0526=\frac{1}{19}$ (0.052632) $\left(=\frac{7}{228}+\frac{1}{57}+\frac{1}{285}+\frac{1}{1140}\right)$ | A1 | CAO; allow 0.053 or anything which rounds up to 0.053 with working |
| **[6]** | | Please check all of the answer space for this part |
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# Question 8(iii):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| $P(A\mid B)=\frac{0.0307\ldots}{0.0526\ldots}$ | M1 | For their $A$ divided by their $B$; allow 0.584 from $\frac{0.0307}{0.0526}$ |
## Question 8(iv):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| P(All have orange centres) $= 0.0307^2 = 0.00094$ or $= \frac{49}{51984}$ $= (0.00094260)$ | M1 | For their $0.0307^2$; Allow $9.4 \times 10^{-4}$, condone 0.0009 or $9 \times 10^{-4}$ |
| | A1 **[2]** | FT |
---
## Question 8(v):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| $P(\text{Has to select} > 2) = 1 - P(\text{Has to select} \leq 2)$ $= 1 - \left(\frac{14}{20} + \left(\frac{6}{20} \times \frac{14}{19}\right)\right) = 1-(0.7+0.221) = 1-0.921$ | M1 | For $\left(\frac{6}{20} \times \frac{14}{19}\right)$; For any of the methods below allow SC2 for $1 - 0.079 = 0.921$ or $1 - 3/38 = 35/38$ o.e. as final answer |
| $= 0.079 \quad (=0.078947)$ | M1, A1 **[3]** | For $1 -$ sum of both CAO; This is $1 - P(C' + CC')$ |
| **OR** $P(\text{Has to select} > 2) = P(\text{First 2 both cherry}) = \left(\frac{6}{20} \times \frac{5}{19}\right)$ | M2 | For whole product; Without extra terms added. M1 if multiplied by $k/18$ only where $0 < k < 18$ (seen as a triple product only) |
| $= 0.079 \quad = \frac{3}{38}$ | A1 | CAO; This is $P(CC)$ |
| **OR** $1-(P(0 \text{ cherries}) + P(1 \text{ cherry}))=$ $1-\left(\frac{14}{20}\times\frac{13}{19}+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{14}{19}\right)+\left(\frac{14}{20}\times\frac{6}{19}\right)\right)$ $= 1-(0.4789+0.2211+0.2211) = 1-0.9209$ | M1, M1 | For any term; For $1 -$ sum of all three; This is $1 - P(C'C' + CC' + C'C)$ |
| $= 0.079$ | A1 | CAO |
| **OR** $\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{14}{18}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\times\frac{14}{17}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\times\frac{3}{17}\times\frac{14}{16}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\times\frac{3}{17}\times\frac{2}{16}\times\frac{14}{15}\right)+\left(\frac{6}{20}\times\frac{5}{19}\times\frac{4}{18}\times\frac{3}{17}\times\frac{2}{16}\times\frac{1}{15}\times\frac{14}{14}\right)$ $= \frac{7}{114}+\frac{14}{969}+\frac{7}{2584}+\frac{7}{19380}+\frac{1}{38760}$ $= 0.079$ | M1, A1 | For any term (all correct); For sum of all five terms (all correct); CAO |
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*Note: This is $P(CCC' + CCCC' + CCCCC' + CCCCCC' + CCCCCCC')$*
8 The box and whisker plot below summarises the weights in grams of the 20 chocolates in a box.\\
\includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{6015ae6c-bf76-4a0c-af0f-5c53f9c5ed2a-4_287_1177_319_427}\\
(i) Find the interquartile range of the data and hence determine whether there are any outliers at either end of the distribution.
Ben buys a box of these chocolates each weekend. The chocolates all look the same on the outside, but 7 of them have orange centres, 6 have cherry centres, 4 have coffee centres and 3 have lemon centres.
One weekend, each of Ben's 3 children eats one of the chocolates, chosen at random.\\
(ii) Calculate the probabilities of the following events.
A: all 3 chocolates have orange centres\\
$B$ : all 3 chocolates have the same centres\\
(iii) Find $\mathrm { P } ( A \mid B )$ and $\mathrm { P } ( B \mid A )$.
The following weekend, Ben buys an identical box of chocolates and again each of his 3 children eats one of the chocolates, chosen at random.\\
(iv) Find the probability that, on both weekends, the 3 chocolates that they eat all have orange centres.\\
(v) Ben likes all of the chocolates except those with cherry centres. On another weekend he is the first of his family to eat some of the chocolates. Find the probability that he has to select more than 2 chocolates before he finds one that he likes.
\section*{END OF QUESTION PAPER}
\section*{OCR \\
Oxford Cambridge and RSA}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR MEI S1 2015 Q8 [19]}}