OCR MEI S4 2015 June — Question 3 24 marks

Exam BoardOCR MEI
ModuleS4 (Statistics 4)
Year2015
SessionJune
Marks24
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicWilcoxon tests
TypeTwo-sample t-test
DifficultyStandard +0.3 This is a straightforward application of standard hypothesis testing procedures from S4. Part (a)(i) requires a two-sample z-test with given summary statistics (routine calculation), part (a)(ii) asks for standard assumptions (recall), and part (b) involves basic experimental design principles. The calculations are mechanical and the conceptual demands are typical for this module, making it slightly easier than average for A-level Further Maths statistics.
Spec5.05c Hypothesis test: normal distribution for population mean5.07a Non-parametric tests: when to use5.07d Paired vs two-sample: selection

3 At an agricultural research station, trials are being carried out to compare a standard variety of tomato with one that has been genetically modified (GM). The trials are concerned with the mean weight of the tomatoes and also with the aesthetic appearance of the tomatoes.
    1. Tomatoes of the standard and GM varieties are grown under similar conditions. The tomatoes are weighed and the data are summarised as follows.
      VarietySample sizeSum of weights \(( \mathrm { g } )\)
      Sum of squares of
      weights \(\left( \mathrm { g } ^ { 2 } \right)\)
      Standard303218.3349257
      GM262954.1338691
      Carry out a test, using the Normal distribution, to investigate whether there is evidence, at the 5\% level of significance, that the two varieties of tomato differ in mean weight. State one assumption required for this test to be valid.
    2. The data in part (i) could have been used to carry out a test for the equality of means based on the \(t\) distribution. State two additional assumptions required for this test to be valid. Discuss briefly which test would be preferable in this case.
  1. In order to judge whether, on the whole, GM tomatoes have a better aesthetic appearance than standard tomatoes, a trial is carried out as follows. 10 of each variety are chosen and consumer panel is asked to arrange the 20 tomatoes in order according to their appearance.
    1. State two important features of the way in which this trial should be designed. Comment briefly on how reliable the evidence from the trial is likely to be.
    2. The order in which the consumer panel arranges the tomatoes is as follows. The tomato with best appearance is listed first. \(G\) and \(S\) denote GM and standard tomatoes respectively. $$\begin{array} { c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c } G & G & G & S & G & G & G & S & G & S & S & S & G & G & S & G & S & S & S & S \end{array}$$ Carry out an appropriate test at the \(1 \%\) level of significance.

Question 3:
Part (a)(i)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMarks Guidance
Sample means: standard 107.2766, GM 113.6192B1
Sample variances: standard 138.2243, GM 121.9372B1
\(H_0: \mu_1 = \mu_2\) (the means of the underlying distributions), \(H_1: \mu_1 \neq \mu_2\)B1 Must be clear that hypotheses refer to underlying means
Test statistic: \(\frac{113.6192 - 107.2766}{\sqrt{\frac{138.2243}{30} + \frac{121.93721}{26}}} = 2.08(0103)\)M1A1
Compare with \(z\) distributionB1
Critical value, 2 tails, 5%, 1.960B1
So 2.08(0103) is just in the critical region
Hence reject \(H_0\) and conclude there is a difference in mean weight between standard and GM tomatoesB1B1
Assumption: the tomatoes may be regarded, in some sense, as random samples of their respective varietiesB1 [10]
Part (a)(ii)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMarks Guidance
Additional assumptions: underlying Normality of the tomatoes' weightsB1
common variance in the underlying distributionsB1
Given the sample sizes it seems safe to use the Normal distributionE1
The Normal test is better in that it makes fewer assumptionsE1 [4]
Part (b)(i)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMarks Guidance
The tomatoes should be chosen at randomB1
The panel should not know which tomatoes are GM / standardB1
Making fine judgements on the appearances of tomatoes is unlikely to be reliableB1 [3] Accept other sensible comments
Question 3 (continued):
Part (ii) - Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMarks Guidance
Rank sums: Standard 134, GM 76M1A1 Or Mann-Whitney: 79, 21
\(H_0\): GM and std tomatoes have, on the whole, the same appearanceB1 Hope for, but don't expect, a formulation in terms of a shift in location parameter for underlying distributions of appearances
\(H_1\): GM tomatoes have, on the whole, a better appearance than std tomatoesB1
(lower rank sum for GM indicates that the evidence is in the correct tail)B1 May be implied
Wilcoxon rank sum testB1
Critical value for \(m = n = 10\), 1 tail, 1% level is 74B1 Critical value 19
The observed value of 76 is not in the critical region
so accept \(H_0\). That is, conclude that there is insufficient evidence to suppose that, on the whole, GM tomatoes have a better appearance than standard tomatoes.B1
Total[7]
# Question 3:

## Part (a)(i)
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Sample means: standard 107.2766, GM 113.6192 | B1 | |
| Sample variances: standard 138.2243, GM 121.9372 | B1 | |
| $H_0: \mu_1 = \mu_2$ (the means of the underlying distributions), $H_1: \mu_1 \neq \mu_2$ | B1 | Must be clear that hypotheses refer to underlying means |
| Test statistic: $\frac{113.6192 - 107.2766}{\sqrt{\frac{138.2243}{30} + \frac{121.93721}{26}}} = 2.08(0103)$ | M1A1 | |
| Compare with $z$ distribution | B1 | |
| Critical value, 2 tails, 5%, 1.960 | B1 | |
| So 2.08(0103) is just in the critical region | | |
| Hence reject $H_0$ and conclude there is a difference in mean weight between standard and GM tomatoes | B1B1 | |
| Assumption: the tomatoes may be regarded, in some sense, as random samples of their respective varieties | B1 [10] | |

## Part (a)(ii)
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Additional assumptions: underlying Normality of the tomatoes' weights | B1 | |
| common variance in the underlying distributions | B1 | |
| Given the sample sizes it seems safe to use the Normal distribution | E1 | |
| The Normal test is better in that it makes fewer assumptions | E1 [4] | |

## Part (b)(i)
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| The tomatoes should be chosen at random | B1 | |
| The panel should not know which tomatoes are GM / standard | B1 | |
| Making fine judgements on the appearances of tomatoes is unlikely to be reliable | B1 [3] | Accept other sensible comments |

# Question 3 (continued):

## Part (ii) - Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test

| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Rank sums: Standard 134, GM 76 | M1A1 | Or Mann-Whitney: 79, 21 |
| $H_0$: GM and std tomatoes have, on the whole, the same appearance | B1 | Hope for, but don't expect, a formulation in terms of a shift in location parameter for underlying distributions of appearances |
| $H_1$: GM tomatoes have, on the whole, a better appearance than std tomatoes | B1 | |
| (lower rank sum for GM indicates that the evidence is in the correct tail) | B1 | May be implied |
| Wilcoxon rank sum test | B1 | |
| Critical value for $m = n = 10$, 1 tail, 1% level is 74 | B1 | Critical value 19 |
| The observed value of 76 is not in the critical region | | |
| so accept $H_0$. That is, conclude that there is insufficient evidence to suppose that, on the whole, GM tomatoes have a better appearance than standard tomatoes. | B1 | |
| **Total** | **[7]** | |

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3 At an agricultural research station, trials are being carried out to compare a standard variety of tomato with one that has been genetically modified (GM). The trials are concerned with the mean weight of the tomatoes and also with the aesthetic appearance of the tomatoes.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item \begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Tomatoes of the standard and GM varieties are grown under similar conditions. The tomatoes are weighed and the data are summarised as follows.

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | l | c | c | c | }
\hline
Variety & Sample size & Sum of weights $( \mathrm { g } )$ & \begin{tabular}{ c }
Sum of squares of \\
weights $\left( \mathrm { g } ^ { 2 } \right)$ \\
\end{tabular} \\
\hline
Standard & 30 & 3218.3 & 349257 \\
\hline
GM & 26 & 2954.1 & 338691 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

Carry out a test, using the Normal distribution, to investigate whether there is evidence, at the 5\% level of significance, that the two varieties of tomato differ in mean weight.

State one assumption required for this test to be valid.
\item The data in part (i) could have been used to carry out a test for the equality of means based on the $t$ distribution. State two additional assumptions required for this test to be valid.

Discuss briefly which test would be preferable in this case.
\end{enumerate}\item In order to judge whether, on the whole, GM tomatoes have a better aesthetic appearance than standard tomatoes, a trial is carried out as follows. 10 of each variety are chosen and consumer panel is asked to arrange the 20 tomatoes in order according to their appearance.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item State two important features of the way in which this trial should be designed.

Comment briefly on how reliable the evidence from the trial is likely to be.
\item The order in which the consumer panel arranges the tomatoes is as follows. The tomato with best appearance is listed first. $G$ and $S$ denote GM and standard tomatoes respectively.

$$\begin{array} { c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c } 
G & G & G & S & G & G & G & S & G & S & S & S & G & G & S & G & S & S & S & S
\end{array}$$

Carry out an appropriate test at the $1 \%$ level of significance.
\end{enumerate}\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR MEI S4 2015 Q3 [24]}}