OCR MEI D2 (Decision Mathematics 2) 2016 June

Question 1
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1 Martin is considering paying for a vaccination against a disease. If he catches the disease he would not be able to work and would lose \(\pounds 900\) in income because he would have to stay at home recovering. The vaccination costs \(\pounds 20\). The vaccination would reduce his risk of catching the disease during the year from 0.02 to 0.001 .
  1. Draw a decision tree for Martin.
  2. Evaluate the EMV of Martin's loss at each node of your tree, and give the action that Martin should take to minimise the EMV of his loss. Martin can answer a medical questionnaire which will give an estimate of his susceptibility to the disease. If he is found to be susceptible, then his chance of catching the disease is 0.05 . Vaccination will reduce that to 0.0025 . If he is found not to be susceptible, then his chance of catching the disease is 0.01 and vaccination will reduce it to 0.0005 . Historically, \(25 \%\) of people are found to be susceptible.
  3. What is the EMV of this questionnaire? Martin decides not to answer the questionnaire. He also decides that there is more than just his EMV to be considered in deciding whether or not to have the vaccination. The vaccination itself is likely to have side effects, but catching the disease would be very unpleasant. Martin estimates that he would find the effects of the disease 1000 times more unpleasant than the effects of the vaccination.
  4. Analyse which course of action would minimise the unpleasantness for Martin.
Question 2
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2
  1. Emelia: 'I won't go out for a walk if it's not dry or not warm.'
    Gemma: ‘It’s warm. Let’s go!’
    Will what Gemma has said convince Emelia, and if not, why not?
  2. If it is daytime and the car headlights are on, then it is raining. If the dashboard lights are dimmed then the car headlights are on.
    It is daytime.
    It is not raining.
    1. What can you deduce?
    2. Prove your deduction.
  3. In this part of the question the switch X is represented by
    \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{d254fbd2-7443-4b6d-87ba-f0d71fce5e17-3_104_138_824_1226} The switch can be wired into a circuit so that current flows when
    the switch is up
    \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{d254fbd2-7443-4b6d-87ba-f0d71fce5e17-3_103_177_1005_593}
    but does not flow when it is down
    \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{d254fbd2-7443-4b6d-87ba-f0d71fce5e17-3_111_167_1000_1334} Or the switch can be wired so that current flows when
    the switch is down
    \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{d254fbd2-7443-4b6d-87ba-f0d71fce5e17-3_109_172_1228_639}
    but does not flow when it is up
    \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{d254fbd2-7443-4b6d-87ba-f0d71fce5e17-3_109_174_1228_1327}
    1. Explain how the following circuit models \(( \mathrm { A } \wedge \mathrm { B } ) \Rightarrow \mathrm { C }\).
      \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{d254fbd2-7443-4b6d-87ba-f0d71fce5e17-3_365_682_1484_694} In the following circuit B1 and B2 represent 'ganged' switches. This means that the two switches are either both up or both down.
      \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{d254fbd2-7443-4b6d-87ba-f0d71fce5e17-3_364_1278_2042_397}
    2. Given that A is down, C is up and current is flowing, what can you deduce?
Question 3
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3 Neil is refurbishing a listed building. There are two types of paint that he can use for the inside walls. One costs \(\pounds 1.45\) per \(\mathrm { m } ^ { 2 }\) and the other costs \(\pounds 0.95\) per \(\mathrm { m } ^ { 2 }\). He must paint the lower half of each wall in the more expensive paint. He has \(350 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) of wall to paint. He has a budget of \(\pounds 400\) for wall paint. The more expensive paint is easier to use, and so Neil wants to use as much of it as possible. Initially, the following LP is constructed to help Neil with his purchasing of paint.
Let \(x\) be the number of \(\mathrm { m } ^ { 2 }\) of wall painted with the expensive paint.
Let \(y\) be the number of \(\mathrm { m } ^ { 2 }\) of wall painted with the less expensive paint. $$\begin{array} { l l } \text { Maximise } & P = x + y
\text { subject to } & 1.45 x + 0.95 y \leqslant 400
& y - x \leqslant 0
& x \geqslant 0
& y \geqslant 0 \end{array}$$
  1. Explain the purpose of the inequality \(y - x \leqslant 0\).
  2. The formulation does not include the inequality \(x + y \geqslant 350\). State what this constraint models and why it has been omitted from the formulation.
  3. Use the simplex algorithm to solve the LP. Pivot first on the "1" in the \(y\) column. Interpret your solution. The solution shows that Neil needs to buy more paint. He negotiates an increase in his budget to \(\pounds 450\).
  4. Find the solution to the LP given by changing \(1.45 x + 0.95 y \leqslant 400\) to \(1.45 x + 0.95 y \leqslant 450\), and interpret your solution. Neil realises that although he now has a solution, that solution is not the best for his requirements.
  5. Explain why the revised solution is not optimal for Neil. In order to move to an optimal solution Neil needs to change the objective of the LP and add another constraint to it.
  6. Write down the new LP and the initial tableau for using two-stage simplex to solve it. Give a brief description of how to use two-stage simplex to solve it.
    \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{d254fbd2-7443-4b6d-87ba-f0d71fce5e17-5_497_558_269_751}
    (a) Solve the route inspection problem in the network above, showing the methodology you used to ensure that your solution is optimal. Show your route.
    (b) Floyd's algorithm is applied to the same network to find the complete network of shortest distances. After three iterations the distance and route matrices are as follows. \begin{center} \begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | c | c | c | } \cline { 2 - 6 } \multicolumn{1}{c|}{} & \(\mathbf { 1 }\) & \(\mathbf { 2 }\) & \(\mathbf { 3 }\) & \(\mathbf { 4 }\) & \(\mathbf { 5 }\)
    \hline \(\mathbf { 1 }\) & 48 & 24 & 28 & 11 & 15
    \hline \(\mathbf { 2 }\) & 24 & 8 & 4 & 11 & 16
    \hline \(\mathbf { 3 }\) & 28 & 4 & 8 & 7 & 12
    \hline
Question 4
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\(\mathbf { 4 }\) & 11 & 11 & 7 & 14 & 14
\hline
Question 5
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\(\mathbf { 5 }\) & 15 & 16 & 12 & 14 & 24
\hline \end{tabular} \end{center}
\cline { 2 - 6 } \multicolumn{1}{c|}{}\(\mathbf { 1 }\)\(\mathbf { 2 }\)\(\mathbf { 3 }\)\(\mathbf { 4 }\)\(\mathbf { 5 }\)
\(\mathbf { 1 }\)22245
\(\mathbf { 2 }\)13333
\(\mathbf { 3 }\)22245
\(\mathbf { 4 }\)13335
\(\mathbf { 5 }\)13343
  1. Perform the fourth iteration of the algorithm, and show that there is no change to either matrix in the final iteration.
  2. Show how to use the matrices to give the shortest distance and the shortest route from vertex \(\mathbf { 1 }\) to vertex 2.
  3. Draw the complete network of shortest distances.
  4. Starting at vertex 1, apply the nearest neighbour algorithm to the complete network of shortest distances to find a Hamilton cycle. Give the length of your cycle and interpret it in the original network.
  5. By temporarily deleting vertex \(\mathbf { 1 }\) and its connecting arcs from the complete network of shortest distances, find a lower bound for the solution to the Travelling Salesperson's Problem in that network. Say what this implies in the original network.