Critique inappropriate sampling methods

7 At a certain hospital it was found that the probability that a patient did not arrive for an appointment was 0.2 . The hospital carries out some publicity in the hope that this probability will be reduced. They wish to test whether the publicity has worked.

1. It is suggested that the first 30 appointments on a Monday should be used for the test. Give a reason why this is not an appropriate sample.
   A suitable sample of 30 appointments is selected and the number of patients that do not arrive is noted. This figure is used to carry out a test at the 5\% significance level.
2. Explain why the test is one-tail and state suitable null and alternative hypotheses.
3. State what is meant by a Type I error in this context.
4. Use the binomial distribution to find the critical region, and find the probability of a Type I error.
5. In fact 3 patients out of the 30 do not arrive. State the conclusion of the test, explaining your answer.

7 In a research laboratory where plants are studied, the probability of a certain type of plant surviving was 0.35 . The laboratory manager changed the growing conditions and wished to test whether the probability of a plant surviving had increased.

1. The plants were grown in rows, and when the manager requested a random sample of 8 plants to be taken, the technician took all 8 plants from the front row. Explain what was wrong with the technician's sample.
2. A suitable sample of 8 plants was taken and 4 of these 8 plants survived. State whether the manager's test is one-tailed or two-tailed and also state the null and alternative hypotheses. Using a \(5 \%\) significance level, find the critical region and carry out the test.
3. State the meaning of a Type II error in the context of the test in part (ii).
4. Find the probability of a Type II error for the test in part (ii) if the probability of a plant surviving is now 0.4.

7 At a certain hospital it was found that the probability that a patient did not arrive for an appointment was 0.2 . The hospital carries out some publicity in the hope that this probability will be reduced. They wish to test whether the publicity has worked.

1. It is suggested that the first 30 appointments on a Monday should be used for the test. Give a reason why this is not an appropriate sample. A suitable sample of 30 appointments is selected and the number of patients that do not arrive is noted. This figure is used to carry out a test at the 5\% significance level.
2. Explain why the test is one-tail and state suitable null and alternative hypotheses.
3. State what is meant by a Type I error in this context.
4. Use the binomial distribution to find the critical region, and find the probability of a Type I error.
5. In fact 3 patients out of the 30 do not arrive. State the conclusion of the test, explaining your answer.

6. A magazine has a large number of subscribers who each pay a membership fee that is due on January 1st each year. Not all subscribers pay their fee by the due date. Based on correspondence from the subscribers, the editor of the magazine believes that \(40 \%\) of subscribers wish to change the name of the magazine. Before making this change the editor decides to carry out a sample survey to obtain the opinions of the subscribers. He uses only those members who have paid their fee on time.

1. Define the population associated with the magazine.
2. Suggest a suitable sampling frame for the survey.
3. Identify the sampling units.
4. Give one advantage and one disadvantage that would have resulted from the editor using a census rather than a sample survey. As a pilot study the editor took a random sample of 25 subscribers.
5. Assuming that the editor's belief is correct, find the probability that exactly 10 of these subscribers agreed with changing the name. In fact only 6 subscribers agreed to the name being changed.
6. Stating your hypotheses clearly test, at the \(5 \%\) level of significance, whether or not the percentage agreeing to the change is less that the editor believes. The full survey is to be carried out using 200 randomly chosen subscribers.
7. Again assuming the editor's belief to be correct and using a suitable approximation, find the probability that in this sample there will be least 71 but fewer than 83 subscribers who agree to the name being changed. \section*{END}

At a certain large school it was found that the proportion of students not wearing correct uniform was 0.15. The school sent a letter to parents asking them to ensure that their children wear the correct uniform. The school now wishes to test whether the proportion not wearing correct uniform has been reduced.

1. It is suggested that a random sample of the students in Grade 12 should be used for the test. Give a reason why this would not be an appropriate sample. [1]
2. State suitable null and alternative hypotheses. [1]
3. Use a binomial distribution to find the probability of a Type I error. You must justify your answer fully. [5]
4. In fact 4 students out of the 50 are not wearing correct uniform. State the conclusion of the test, explaining your answer. [2]
5. State, with a reason, which of the errors, Type I or Type II, may have been made. [2]

A suitable sample of 50 students is selected and the number not wearing correct uniform is noted. This figure is used to carry out a test at the 5% significance level.