2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles

3 For events \(A , B\) and \(C\) it is given that \(\mathrm { P } ( A ) = 0.6 , \mathrm { P } ( B ) = 0.5 , \mathrm { P } ( C ) = 0.4\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( A \cap B \cap C ) = 0.1\). It is also given that events \(A\) and \(B\) are independent and that events \(A\) and \(C\) are independent.

1. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( B \mid A )\).
2. Given also that events \(B\) and \(C\) are independent, find \(\mathrm { P } \left( A ^ { \prime } \cap B ^ { \prime } \cap C ^ { \prime } \right)\).
3. Given instead that events \(B\) and \(C\) are not independent, find the greatest and least possible values of \(\mathrm { P } \left( A ^ { \prime } \cap B ^ { \prime } \cap C ^ { \prime } \right)\).

8 A game uses an unbiased die with faces numbered 1 to 6 . The die is thrown once. If it shows 4 or 5 or 6 then this number is the final score. If it shows 1 or 2 or 3 then the die is thrown again and the final score is the sum of the numbers shown on the two throws.

1. Find the probability that the final score is 4 .
2. Given that the die is thrown only once, find the probability that the final score is 4 .
3. Given that the die is thrown twice, find the probability that the final score is 4 .

4 Jenny and Omar are each allowed two attempts at a high jump.

1. The probability that Jenny will succeed on her first attempt is 0.6 . If she fails on her first attempt, the probability that she will succeed on her second attempt is 0.7 . Calculate the probability that Jenny will succeed.
2. The probability that Omar will succeed on his first attempt is \(p\). If he fails on his first attempt, the probability that he will succeed on his second attempt is also \(p\). The probability that he succeeds is 0.51 . Find \(p\). \(530 \%\) of packets of Natural Crunch Crisps contain a free gift. Jan buys 5 packets each week.

4 In a food survey, a large number of people are asked whether they like tomato soup, mushroom soup, both or neither. One of these people is selected at random.

• \(T\) is the event that this person likes tomato soup.
• \(M\) is the event that this person likes mushroom soup.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( T ) = 0.55 , \mathrm { P } ( M ) = 0.33\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( T \mid M ) = 0.80\).

1. Use this information to show that the events \(T\) and \(M\) are not independent.
2. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( T \cap M )\).
3. Draw a Venn diagram showing the events \(T\) and \(M\), and fill in the probability corresponding to each of the four regions of your diagram.

3 Each weekday Alan drives to work. On his journey, he goes over a level crossing. Sometimes he has to wait at the level crossing for a train to pass.

• \(W\) is the event that Alan has to wait at the level crossing.
• \(L\) is the event that Alan is late for work.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( L \mid W ) = 0.4 , \mathrm { P } ( W ) = 0.07\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( L \cup W ) = 0.08\).

1. Calculate \(\mathrm { P } ( L \cap W )\).
2. Draw a Venn diagram, showing the events \(L\) and \(W\). Fill in the probability corresponding to each of the four regions of your diagram.
3. Determine whether the events \(L\) and \(W\) are independent, explaining your method clearly.

7 Laura frequently flies to business meetings and often finds that her flights are delayed. A flight may be delayed due to technical problems, weather problems or congestion problems, with probabilities \(0.2,0.15\) and 0.1 respectively. The tree diagram shows this information. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{3a5d18f5-b1fe-4513-ae4e-f37c20f172b5-4_608_1651_532_248}

1. Write down the values of the probabilities \(a , b\) and \(c\) shown in the tree diagram. One of Laura's flights is selected at random.
2. Find the probability that Laura's flight is not delayed and hence write down the probability that it is delayed.
3. Find the probability that Laura's flight is delayed due to just one of the three problems.
4. Given that Laura's flight is delayed, find the probability that the delay is due to just one of the three problems.
5. Given that Laura's flight has no technical problems, find the probability that it is delayed.
6. In a particular year, Laura has 110 flights. Find the expected number of flights that are delayed.

7 One train leaves a station each hour. The train is either on time or late. If the train is on time, the probability that the next train is on time is 0.95 . If the train is late, the probability that the next train is on time is 0.6 . On a particular day, the 0900 train is on time.

1. Illustrate the possible outcomes for the 1000,1100 and 1200 trains on a probability tree diagram.
2. Find the probability that
   (A) all three of these trains are on time,
   (B) just one of these three trains is on time,
   (C) the 1200 train is on time.
3. Given that the 1200 train is on time, find the probability that the 1000 train is also on time. 3
4. Write any calculations on page 5. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{091d6f43-ad01-4849-9f3c-3e58349aa169-4_2276_1490_324_363}

7 Jenny has six darts. She throws darts, one at a time, aiming each at the bull's-eye. The probability that she hits the bull's-eye with her first dart is 0.1 . For any subsequent throw, the probability of hitting the bull's-eye is 0.2 if the previous dart hit the bull's-eye and 0.05 otherwise.

1. Illustrate the possible outcomes for her first, second and third darts on a probability tree diagram.
2. Find the probability that
   (A) she hits the bull's-eye with at least one of her first three darts,
   (B) she hits the bull's-eye with exactly one of her first three darts.
3. Given that she hits the bull's-eye with at least one of her first three darts, find the probability that she hits the bull's-eye with exactly one of them. Jenny decides that, if she hits the bull's-eye with any of her first three darts, she will stop after throwing three darts. Otherwise she will throw all six darts.
4. Find the probability that she hits the bull's-eye three times in total.

2 A survey is being carried out into the sports viewing habits of people in a particular area. As part of the survey, 250 people are asked which of the following sports they have watched on television in the past month.

• Football
• Cycling
• Rugby

The numbers of people who have watched these sports are shown in the Venn diagram. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{6015ae6c-bf76-4a0c-af0f-5c53f9c5ed2a-2_723_917_1183_575} One of the people is selected at random.

1. Find the probability that this person has in the past month
   (A) watched cycling but not football,
   (B) watched either one or two of the three sports.
2. Given that this person has watched cycling, find the probability that this person has not watched football.

8 The box and whisker plot below summarises the weights in grams of the 20 chocolates in a box. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{6015ae6c-bf76-4a0c-af0f-5c53f9c5ed2a-4_287_1177_319_427}

1. Find the interquartile range of the data and hence determine whether there are any outliers at either end of the distribution. Ben buys a box of these chocolates each weekend. The chocolates all look the same on the outside, but 7 of them have orange centres, 6 have cherry centres, 4 have coffee centres and 3 have lemon centres. One weekend, each of Ben's 3 children eats one of the chocolates, chosen at random.
2. Calculate the probabilities of the following events. A: all 3 chocolates have orange centres \(B\) : all 3 chocolates have the same centres
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( A \mid B )\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( B \mid A )\). The following weekend, Ben buys an identical box of chocolates and again each of his 3 children eats one of the chocolates, chosen at random.
4. Find the probability that, on both weekends, the 3 chocolates that they eat all have orange centres.
5. Ben likes all of the chocolates except those with cherry centres. On another weekend he is the first of his family to eat some of the chocolates. Find the probability that he has to select more than 2 chocolates before he finds one that he likes. \section*{END OF QUESTION PAPER} \section*{OCR
   Oxford Cambridge and RSA}

7 A particular disease occurs in a proportion \(p\) of the population of a town. A diagnostic test has been developed, in which a positive result indicates the presence of the disease. It has a probability 0.98 of giving a true positive result, i.e. of indicating the presence of the disease when it is actually present. The test will give a false positive result with probability 0.08 when the disease is not present. A randomly chosen person is given the test.

1. Find, in terms of \(p\), the probability that
   1. the person has the disease when the result is positive,
   2. the test will lead to a wrong conclusion. It is decided that if the result of the test on someone is positive, that person is tested again. The result of the second test is independent of the result of the first test.
   3. Find the probability that the person has the disease when the result of the second test is positive.
   4. The town has 24000 children and plans to test all of them at a cost of \(\pounds 5\) per test. Assuming that \(p = 0.001\), calculate the expected total cost of carrying out these tests.

6 Nuts and raisins occur in randomly chosen squares of a particular brand of chocolate. The numbers of nuts and raisins are denoted by \(N\) and \(R\) respectively and the joint probability distribution of \(N\) and \(R\) is given by $$f ( n , r ) = \begin{cases} c ( n + 2 r ) & n = 0,1,2 \text { and } r = 0,1,2 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{cases}$$ where \(c\) is a constant.

1. Find the value of \(c\).
2. Find the probability that there is exactly one nut in a randomly chosen square.
3. Find the probability that the total number of nuts and raisins in a randomly chosen square is more than 2 .
4. For squares in which there are 2 raisins, find the mean number of nuts.
5. Determine whether \(N\) and \(R\) are independent.

8 For the events \(L\) and \(M , \mathrm { P } ( L \mid M ) = 0.2 , \mathrm { P } ( M \mid L ) = 0.4\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( M ) = 0.6\).

1. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( L )\) and \(\mathrm { P } \left( L ^ { \prime } \cup M ^ { \prime } \right)\).
2. Given that, for the event \(N , \mathrm { P } ( N \mid ( L \cap M ) ) = 0.3\), find \(\mathrm { P } \left( L ^ { \prime } \cup M ^ { \prime } \cup N ^ { \prime } \right)\).

7 The discrete random variable \(X\) can take the values 0,1 and 2 with equal probabilities.
The random variables \(X _ { 1 }\) and \(X _ { 2 }\) are independent observations of \(X\), and the random variables \(Y\) and \(Z\) are defined as follows: \(Y\) is the smaller of \(X _ { 1 }\) and \(X _ { 2 }\), or their common value if they are equal; \(Z = \left| X _ { 1 } - X _ { 2 } \right|\).

1. Draw up a table giving the joint distribution of \(Y\) and \(Z\).
2. Find \(P ( Y = 0 \mid Z = 0 )\).
3. Find \(\operatorname { Cov } ( Y , Z )\).

3 Events \(A\) and \(B\) are such that \(\mathrm { P } ( A ) = 0.6 , \mathrm { P } ( B ) = 0.4\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( A \cup B ) = 0.8\).

1. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( A \cap B )\).
2. Find \(\mathrm { P } \left( A \cap B ^ { \prime } \right)\).
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( A \mid B )\). Events \(A\) and \(B\) are as above and a third event \(C\) is such that \(\mathrm { P } ( A \cup B \cup C ) = 1 , \mathrm { P } ( A \cap B \cap C ) = 0.05\), \(\mathrm { P } ( A \cap C ) = \mathrm { P } ( B \cap C )\) and \(\mathrm { P } \left( A \cap B ^ { \prime } \cap C ^ { \prime } \right) = 3 \mathrm { P } \left( A ^ { \prime } \cap B \cap C ^ { \prime } \right)\).
4. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( C )\).

5 Each day Anna drives to work.

• \(R\) is the event that it is raining.
• \(L\) is the event that Anna arrives at work late.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( R ) = 0.36 , \mathrm { P } ( L ) = 0.25\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( R \cap L ) = 0.2\).

1. Determine whether the events \(R\) and \(L\) are independent.
2. Draw a Venn diagram showing the events \(R\) and \(L\). Fill in the probability corresponding to each of the four regions of your diagram.
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( L \mid R )\). State what this probability represents.

5 Measurements of sunshine and rainfall are made each day at a particular weather station. For a randomly chosen day,

• \(R\) is the event that at least 1 mm of rainfall is recorded,
• \(S\) is the event that at least 1 hour of sunshine is recorded.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( R ) = 0.28 , \mathrm { P } ( S ) = 0.87\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( R \cup S ) = 0.94\).

1. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( R \cap S )\).
2. Draw a Venn diagram showing the events \(R\) and \(S\), and fill in the probability corresponding to each of the four regions of your diagram.
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( R \mid S )\) and state what this probability represents in this context.

12 Anika and Beth are playing a game which consists of several points.

• The probability that Anika will win any point is 0.7 .
• The probability that Beth will win any point is 0.3 .
• The outcome of each point is independent of the outcome of every other point.

The first player to win two points wins the game.

1. Write down the probability that the game consists of more than three points.
2. Complete the probability tree diagram in the Printed Answer Booklet showing all the possibilities for the game.
3. Determine the probability that Beth wins the game.
4. Determine the probability that the game consists of exactly three points.
5. Given that Beth wins the game, determine the probability that the game consists of exactly three points.

1. Find

$$\int \left( \frac { 2 } { 3 } x ^ { 3 } - 6 \sqrt { x } + 1 \right) \mathrm { d } x$$ giving your answer in its simplest form.

1. Two bags, \(\mathbf { A }\) and \(\mathbf { B }\), each contain balls which are either red or yellow or green.

Bag A contains 4 red, 3 yellow and \(n\) green balls.
Bag \(\mathbf { B }\) contains 5 red, 3 yellow and 1 green ball.
A ball is selected at random from bag \(\mathbf { A }\) and placed into bag \(\mathbf { B }\).
A ball is then selected at random from bag \(\mathbf { B }\) and placed into bag \(\mathbf { A }\).
The probability that bag \(\mathbf { A }\) now contains an equal number of red, yellow and green balls is \(p\). Given that \(p > 0\), find the possible values of \(n\) and \(p\).

1. Tisam is playing a game.

She uses a ball, a cup and a spinner.
The random variable \(X\) represents the number the spinner lands on when it is spun. The probability distribution of \(X\) is given in the following table where \(a , b , c\) and \(d\) are probabilities.
To play the game

• the spinner is spun to obtain a value of \(x\)
• Tisam then stands \(x \mathrm {~cm}\) from the cup and tries to throw the ball into the cup

The event \(S\) represents the event that Tisam successfully throws the ball into the cup.
To model this game Tisam assumes that

• \(\mathrm { P } ( S \mid \{ X = x \} ) = \frac { k } { x }\) where \(k\) is a constant
• \(\mathrm { P } ( S \cap \{ X = x \} )\) should be the same whatever value of \(x\) is obtained from the spinner

Using Tisam's model,

1. show that \(c = \frac { 8 } { 5 } b\)
2. find the probability distribution of \(X\) Nav tries, a large number of times, to throw the ball into the cup from a distance of 100 cm .
   He successfully gets the ball in the cup \(30 \%\) of the time.
3. State, giving a reason, why Tisam's model of this game is not suitable to describe Nav playing the game for all values of \(X\)

16 Research conducted by social scientists has shown that \(16 \%\) of young adults smoke cigarettes. Two young adults are selected at random.

1. Determine the probability that one smokes cigarettes and the other doesn't. The same research has also shown that

9 Labrador puppies may be black, yellow or chocolate in colour. Some information about a litter of 9 puppies is given in the table. Four puppies are chosen at random to train as guide dogs.

1. Determine the probability that exactly 3 females are chosen.
2. Determine the probability that at least 3 black puppies are chosen.
3. Determine the probability that exactly 3 females are chosen given that at least 3 black puppies are chosen.
4. Explain whether the 2 events 'choosing exactly 3 females' and 'choosing at least 3 black puppies' are independent events.

1. A manufacturer of electric generators buys engines for its generators from three companies, \(R , S\) and \(T\).

Company \(R\) supplies 40\% of the engines. Company \(S\) supplies \(25 \%\) of the engines. The rest of the engines are supplied by company \(T\). It is known that \(2 \%\) of the engines supplied by company \(R\) are faulty, \(1 \%\) of the engines supplied by company \(S\) are faulty and \(2 \%\) of the engines supplied by company \(T\) are faulty. An engine is chosen at random.

1. Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible outcomes and the associated probabilities.
2. Calculate the probability that the engine is from company \(R\) and is not faulty.
3. Calculate the probability that the engine is faulty. Given that the engine is faulty,
4. find the probability that the engine did not come from company \(S\).
   

1. Events \(A\) and \(B\) are such that

$$\mathrm { P } ( A ) = 0.5 \quad \mathrm { P } ( A \mid B ) = \frac { 2 } { 3 } \quad \mathrm { P } \left( A ^ { \prime } \cup B ^ { \prime } \right) = 0.6$$

1. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( B )\)
2. Find \(\mathrm { P } \left( A ^ { \prime } \mid B ^ { \prime } \right)\) The event \(C\) has \(\mathrm { P } ( C ) = 0.15\) The events \(A\) and \(C\) are mutually exclusive. The events \(B\) and \(C\) are independent.
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( B \cap C )\)
4. Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the events \(A , B\) and \(C\) and the probabilities for each region.