2.03c Conditional probability: using diagrams/tables

The Venn diagram shows three events \(A , B\) and \(C\), where \(p , q , r , s\) and \(t\) are probabilities. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{319667e7-3f8b-4a33-8fc5-ef72154d1421-10_647_972_306_488}
(b) Find the value of \(r\).
(c) Hence write down the value of \(s\) and the value of \(t\).
(d) State, giving a reason, whether or not the events \(A\) and \(B\) are independent.
(e) Find \(\mathrm { P } ( B \mid A \cup C )\). \(\mathrm { P } ( A ) = 0.5 , \mathrm { P } ( B ) = 0.6\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( C ) = 0.25\) and the events \(B\) and \(C\) are independent.
(a) Find the value of \(p\) and the value of \(q\).

5. Yuto works in the quality control department of a large company. The time, \(T\) minutes, it takes Yuto to analyse a sample is normally distributed with mean 18 minutes and standard deviation 5 minutes.

1. Find the probability that Yuto takes longer than 20 minutes to analyse the next sample. (3) The company has a large store of samples analysed by Yuto with the time taken for each analysis recorded. Serena is investigating the samples that took Yuto longer than 15 minutes to analyse. She selects, at random, one of the samples that took Yuto longer than 15 minutes to analyse.
2. Find the probability that this sample took Yuto more than 20 minutes to analyse. Serena can identify, in advance, the samples that Yuto can analyse in under 15 minutes and in future she will assign these to someone else.
3. Estimate the median time taken by Yuto to analyse samples in future.

4.A bag contains 64 coloured beads.There are \(r\) red beads,\(y\) yellow beads and 1 green bead and \(r + y + 1 = 64\) Two beads are selected at random,one at a time without replacement.

1. Find the probability that the green bead is one of the beads selected. The probability that both of the beads are red is \(\frac { 5 } { 84 }\)
2. Show that \(r\) satisfies the equation \(r ^ { 2 } - r - 240 = 0\)
3. Hence show that the only possible value of \(r\) is 16
4. Given that at least one of the beads is red,find the probability that they are both red.

7. Farmer Adam grows potatoes. The weights of potatoes, in grams, grown by Adam are normally distributed with a mean of 140 g and a standard deviation of 40 g . Adam cannot sell potatoes with a weight of less than 92 g .

1. Find the percentage of potatoes that Adam grows but cannot sell. The upper quartile of the weight of potatoes sold by Adam is \(q _ { 3 }\)
2. Find the probability that the weight of a randomly selected potato grown by Adam is more than \(q _ { 3 }\)
3. Find the lower quartile, \(q _ { 1 }\), of the weight of potatoes sold by Adam. Betty selects a random sample of 3 potatoes sold by Adam.
4. Find the probability that one weighs less than \(q _ { 1 }\), one weighs more than \(q _ { 3 }\) and one has a weight between \(q _ { 1 }\) and \(q _ { 3 }\)

   END

5. A keep-fit enthusiast swims, runs or cycles each day with probabilities \(0.2,0.3\) and 0.5 respectively. If he swims he then spends time in the sauna with probability 0.35 . The probabilities that he spends time in the sauna after running or cycling are 0.2 and 0.45 respectively.

1. Represent this information on a tree diagram.
2. Find the probability that on any particular day he uses the sauna.
3. Given that he uses the sauna one day, find the probability that he had been swimming.
4. Given that he did not use the sauna one day, find the probability that he had been swimming.

2 Xavier, Yuri and Zara attend a sports centre for their judo club's practice sessions. The probabilities of them arriving late are, independently, \(0.3,0.4\) and 0.2 respectively.

1. Calculate the probability that for a particular practice session:
   1. all three arrive late;
   2. none of the three arrives late;
   3. only Zara arrives late.
2. Zara's friend, Wei, also attends the club's practice sessions. The probability that Wei arrives late is 0.9 when Zara arrives late, and is 0.25 when Zara does not arrive late. Calculate the probability that for a particular practice session:
   1. both Zara and Wei arrive late;
   2. either Zara or Wei, but not both, arrives late.

6 Twins Alec and Eric are members of the same local cricket club and play for the club's under 18 team. The probability that Alec is selected to play in any particular game is 0.85 .
The probability that Eric is selected to play in any particular game is 0.60 .
The probability that both Alec and Eric are selected to play in any particular game is 0.55 .

1. By using a table, or otherwise:
   1. show that the probability that neither twin is selected for a particular game is 0.10 ;
   2. find the probability that at least one of the twins is selected for a particular game;
   3. find the probability that exactly one of the twins is selected for a particular game.
2. The probability that the twins' younger brother, Cedric, is selected for a particular game is:
   0.30 given that both of the twins have been selected;
   0.75 given that exactly one of the twins has been selected;
   0.40 given that neither of the twins has been selected. Calculate the probability that, for a particular game:
   1. all three brothers are selected;
   2. at least two of the three brothers are selected.
      (6 marks)

5 Roger is an active retired lecturer. Each day after breakfast, he decides whether the weather for that day is going to be fine ( \(F\) ), dull ( \(D\) ) or wet ( \(W\) ). He then decides on only one of four activities for the day: cycling ( \(C\) ), gardening ( \(G\) ), shopping ( \(S\) ) or relaxing \(( R )\). His decisions from day to day may be assumed to be independent. The table shows Roger's probabilities for each combination of weather and activity.

1. Find the probability that, on a particular day, Roger decided:
   1. that it was going to be fine and that he would go cycling;
   2. on either gardening or shopping;
   3. to go cycling, given that he had decided that it was going to be fine;
   4. not to relax, given that he had decided that it was going to be dull;
   5. that it was going to be fine, given that he did not go cycling.
2. Calculate the probability that, on a particular Saturday and Sunday, Roger decided that it was going to be fine and decided on the same activity for both days.

2 The British and Irish Lions 2005 rugby squad contained 50 players. The nationalities and playing positions of these players are shown in the table.

1. A player was selected at random from the squad for a radio interview. Calculate the probability that the player was:
   1. a Welsh back;
   2. English;
   3. not English;
   4. Irish, given that the player was a back;
   5. a forward, given that the player was not Scottish.
2. Four players were selected at random from the squad to visit a school. Calculate the probability that all four players were English.

2 A basket in a stationery store contains a total of 400 marker and highlighter pens. Of the marker pens, some are permanent and the rest are non-permanent. The colours and types of pen are shown in the table. A pen is selected at random from the basket. Calculate the probability that it is:

1. a blue pen;
2. a marker pen;
3. a blue pen or a marker pen;
4. a green pen, given that it is a highlighter pen;
5. a non-permanent marker pen, given that it is a red pen.

1 A large bookcase contains two types of book: hardback and paperback. The number of books of each type in each of four subject categories is shown in the table.

1. A book is selected at random from the bookcase. Calculate the probability that the book is:
   1. a paperback;
   2. not science fiction;
   3. science fiction or a hardback;
   4. a thriller, given that it is a paperback.
2. Three books are selected at random, without replacement, from the bookcase. Calculate, to three decimal places, the probability that one is crime, one is romance and one is science fiction.

5 Hugh owns a small farm.

1. He has two sows, Josie and Rosie, which he feeds at a trough in their field at 8.00 am each day. The probability that Josie is waiting at the trough at 8.00 am on any given day is 0.90 . The probability that Rosie is waiting at the trough at 8.00 am on any given day is 0.70 when Josie is waiting at the trough, but is only 0.20 when Josie is not waiting at the trough. Calculate the probability that, at 8.00 am on a given day:
   1. both sows are waiting at the trough;
   2. neither sow is waiting at the trough;
   3. at least one sow is waiting at the trough.
2. Hugh also has two cows, Daisy and Maisy. Each day at 4.00 pm , he collects them from the gate to their field and takes them to be milked. The probability, \(\mathrm { P } ( D )\), that Daisy is waiting at the gate at 4.00 pm on any given day is 0.75 .
   The probability, \(\mathrm { P } ( M )\), that Maisy is waiting at the gate at 4.00 pm on any given day is 0.60 .
   The probability that both Daisy and Maisy are waiting at the gate at 4.00 pm on any given day is 0.40 .
   1. In the table of probabilities, \(D ^ { \prime }\) and \(M ^ { \prime }\) denote the events 'not \(D\) ' and 'not \(M\) ' respectively.

4 A survey of the 640 properties on an estate was undertaken. Part of the information collected related to the number of bedrooms and the number of toilets in each property. This information is shown in the table.

1. A property on the estate is selected at random. Find, giving your answer to three decimal places, the probability that the property has:
   1. exactly 3 bedrooms;
   2. at least 2 toilets;
   3. exactly 3 bedrooms and at least 2 toilets;
   4. at most 3 bedrooms, given that it has exactly 2 toilets.
2. Use relevant answers from part (a) to show that the number of toilets is not independent of the number of bedrooms.
3. Three properties are selected at random from those on the estate which have exactly 3 bedrooms. Calculate the probability that one property has 2 toilets, one has 3 toilets and the other has at least 4 toilets. Give your answer to three decimal places.

5 Alison is a member of a tenpin bowling club which meets at a bowling alley on Wednesday and Thursday evenings. The probability that she bowls on a Wednesday evening is 0.90 . Independently, the probability that she bowls on a Thursday evening is 0.95 .

1. Calculate the probability that, during a particular week, Alison bowls on:
   1. two evenings;
   2. exactly one evening.
2. David, a friend of Alison, is a member of the same club. The probability that he bowls on a Wednesday evening, given that Alison bowls on that evening, is 0.80 . The probability that he bowls on a Wednesday evening, given that Alison does not bowl on that evening, is 0.15 . The probability that he bowls on a Thursday evening, given that Alison bowls on that evening, is 1 . The probability that he bowls on a Thursday evening, given that Alison does not bowl on that evening, is 0 . Calculate the probability that, during a particular week:
   1. Alison and David bowl on a Wednesday evening;
   2. Alison and David bowl on both evenings;
   3. Alison, but not David, bowls on a Thursday evening;
   4. neither bowls on either evening.

3 The table shows, for a random sample of 500 patients attending a dental surgery, the patients' ages, in years, and the NHS charge bands for the patients' courses of treatment. Band 0 denotes the least expensive charge band and band 3 denotes the most expensive charge band.

1. Calculate, to three decimal places, the probability that a patient, selected at random from these 500 patients, was:
   1. aged between 41 and 65;
   2. aged 66 or over and charged at band 2;
   3. aged between 19 and 40 and charged at most at band 1;
   4. aged 41 or over, given that the patient was charged at band 2;
   5. charged at least at band 2, given that the patient was not aged 66 or over.
2. Four patients at this dental surgery, not included in the above 500 patients, are selected at random. Estimate, to three significant figures, the probability that two of these four patients are aged between 41 and 65 and are not charged at band 0 , and the other two patients are aged 66 or over and are charged at either band 1 or band 2.
   [0pt] [5 marks]

2. Given that \(\mathrm { P } ( A ) = \frac { 3 } { 5 } , \mathrm { P } ( B ) = \frac { 5 } { 8 } , \mathrm { P } ( A \cap B ) = \frac { 7 } { 20 } , \mathrm { P } ( A \cup C ) = \frac { 7 } { 10 }\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( C \mid A ) = \frac { 1 } { 3 }\),

1. determine whether \(A\) and \(B\) are independent events.
2. Find \(\mathrm { P } \left( A \cap B ^ { \prime } \right)\).
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } \left( ( A \cap C ) ^ { \prime } \right)\).
4. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( A \mid C )\).

3. In a study of 120 pet-owners it was found that 57 owned at least one dog and of these 16 also owned at least one cat. There were 35 people in the group who didn't own any cats or dogs. As an incentive to take part in the study, one participant is chosen at random to win a year's free supply of pet food. Find the probability that the winner of this prize

1. owns a dog but does not own a cat,
2. owns a cat,
3. does not own a cat given that they do not own a dog.

6. A software company sets exams for programmers who wish to qualify to use their packages. Past records show that \(55 \%\) of candidates taking the exam for the first time will pass, \(60 \%\) of those taking it for the second time will pass, but only \(40 \%\) of those taking the exam for the third time will pass. Candidates are not allowed to sit the exam more than three times. A programmer decides to keep taking the exam until he passes or is allowed no further attempts. Find the probability that he will

1. pass the exam on his second attempt,
2. pass the exam. Another programmer already has the qualification.
3. Find, correct to 3 significant figures, the probability that she passed first time. At a particular sitting of the exam there are 400 candidates.
   The ratio of those sitting the exam for the first time to those sitting it for the second time to those sitting it for the third time is \(5 : 3 : 2\)
4. How many of the 400 candidates would be expected to pass?

6. Serving against his regular opponent, a tennis player has a \(65 \%\) chance of getting his first serve in. If his first serve is in he then has a \(70 \%\) chance of winning the point but if his first serve is not in, he only has a \(45 \%\) chance of winning the point.

1. Represent this information on a tree diagram. For a point on which this player served to his regular opponent, find the probability that
2. he won the point,
3. his first serve went in given that he won the point,
4. his first serve didn't go in given that he lost the point.

3. The probability that Ajita gets up before 6.30 am in the morning is 0.7 The probability that she goes for a run in the morning is 0.35
The probability that Ajita gets up after 6.30 am and does not go for a run is 0.22
Let \(A\) represent the event that Ajita gets up before 6.30 am and \(B\) represent the event that she goes for a run in the morning. Find

1. \(\mathrm { P } ( A \cup B )\),
2. \(\mathrm { P } \left( A \cap B ^ { \prime } \right)\),
3. \(\mathrm { P } ( B \mid A )\).
4. State, with a reason, whether or not events \(A\) and \(B\) are independent.

6. At the start of a gameshow there are 10 contestants of which 6 are female. In each round of the game, one contestant is eliminated. All of the contestants have the same chance of progressing to the next round each time.

1. Show that the probability that the first two contestants to be eliminated are both male is \(\frac { 2 } { 15 }\).
2. Find the probability that more females than males are eliminated in the first three rounds of the game.
3. Given that the first contestant to be eliminated is male, find the probability that the next two contestants to be eliminated are both female.
   (3 marks)

4 A manufacturer produces three models of washing machine: basic, standard and deluxe. An analysis of warranty records shows that \(25 \%\) of faults are on basic machines, \(60 \%\) are on standard machines and 15\% are on deluxe machines. For basic machines, 30\% of faults reported during the warranty period are electrical, \(50 \%\) are mechanical and \(20 \%\) are water-related. For standard machines, 40\% of faults reported during the warranty period are electrical, \(45 \%\) are mechanical and 15\% are water-related. For deluxe machines, \(55 \%\) of faults reported during the warranty period are electrical, \(35 \%\) are mechanical and \(10 \%\) are water-related.

1. Draw a tree diagram to represent the above information.
2. Hence, or otherwise, determine the probability that a fault reported during the warranty period:
   1. is electrical;
   2. is on a deluxe machine, given that it is electrical.
3. A random sample of 10 electrical faults reported during the warranty period is selected. Calculate the probability that exactly 4 of them are on deluxe machines.

2 A hotel chain has hotels in three types of location: city, coastal and country. The percentages of the chain's reservations for each of these locations are 30,55 and 15 respectively. Each of the chain's hotels offers three types of reservation: Bed \& Breakfast, Half Board and Full Board. The percentages of these types of reservation for each of the three types of location are shown in the table. For example, 80 per cent of reservations for hotels in city locations are for Bed \& Breakfast.

1. For a reservation selected at random:
   1. show that the probability that it is for Bed \& Breakfast is 0.34 ;
   2. calculate the probability that it is for Half Board in a hotel in a coastal location;
   3. calculate the probability that it is for a hotel in a coastal location, given that it is for Half Board.
2. A random sample of 3 reservations for Half Board is selected. Calculate the probability that these 3 reservations are for hotels in different types of location.

4 It is proposed to introduce, for all males at age 60, screening tests, A and B, for a certain disease. Test B is administered only when the result of Test A is inconclusive. It is known that 10\% of 60-year-old men suffer from the disease. For those 60 -year-old men suffering from the disease:

• Test A is known to give a positive result, indicating a presence of the disease, in \(90 \%\) of cases, a negative result in \(2 \%\) of cases and a requirement for the administration of Test B in \(8 \%\) of cases;
• Test B is known to give a positive result in \(98 \%\) of cases and a negative result in 2\% of cases.

For those 60 -year-old men not suffering from the disease:

• Test A is known to give a positive result in \(1 \%\) of cases, a negative result in \(80 \%\) of cases and a requirement for the administration of Test B in 19\% of cases;
• Test B is known to give a positive result in \(1 \%\) of cases and a negative result in \(99 \%\) of cases.

3 An IT help desk has three telephone stations: Alpha, Beta and Gamma. Each of these stations deals only with telephone enquiries. The probability that an enquiry is received at Alpha is 0.60 .
The probability that an enquiry is received at Beta is 0.25 .
The probability that an enquiry is received at Gamma is 0.15 . Each enquiry is resolved at the station that receives the enquiry. The percentages of enquiries resolved within various times at each station are shown in the table. For example:
80 per cent of enquiries received at Alpha are resolved within 24 hours;
25 per cent of enquiries received at Alpha take between 1 hour and 24 hours to resolve.

1. Find the probability that an enquiry, selected at random, is:
   1. resolved at Gamma;
   2. resolved at Alpha within 1 hour;
   3. resolved within 24 hours;
   4. received at Beta, given that it is resolved within 24 hours.
2. A random sample of 3 enquiries was selected. Given that all 3 enquiries were resolved within 24 hours, calculate the probability that they were all received at:
   1. Beta;
   2. the same station.