2.03b Probability diagrams: tree, Venn, sample space

8 Jane buys 5 jam doughnuts, 4 cream doughnuts and 3 plain doughnuts.
On arrival home, each of her three children eats one of the twelve doughnuts. The different kinds of doughnut are indistinguishable by sight and so selection of doughnuts is random. Calculate the probabilities of the following events.

1. All 3 doughnuts eaten contain jam.
2. All 3 doughnuts are of the same kind.
3. The 3 doughnuts are all of a different kind.
4. The 3 doughnuts contain jam, given that they are all of the same kind. On 5 successive Saturdays, Jane buys the same combination of 12 doughnuts and her three children eat one each. Find the probability that all 3 doughnuts eaten contain jam on
5. exactly 2 Saturdays out of the 5 ,
6. at least 1 Saturday out of the 5 .

4 A fair six-sided die is rolled twice. The random variable \(X\) represents the higher of the two scores. The probability distribution of \(X\) is given by the formula $$\mathrm { P } ( X = r ) = k ( 2 r - 1 ) \text { for } r = 1,2,3,4,5,6 .$$

1. Copy and complete the following probability table and hence find the exact value of \(k\), giving your answer as a fraction in its simplest form.

   \(r\)	1	2	3	4	5	6
   \(\mathrm { P } ( X = r )\)	\(k\)					\(11 k\)

2. Find the mean of \(X\). A fair six-sided die is rolled three times.
3. Find the probability that the total score is 16 .

5 Each day the probability that Ashwin wears a tie is 0.2 . The probability that he wears a jacket is 0.4 . If he wears a jacket, the probability that he wears a tie is 0.3 .

1. Find the probability that, on a randomly selected day, Ashwin wears a jacket and a tie.
2. Draw a Venn diagram, using one circle for the event 'wears a jacket' and one circle for the event 'wears a tie'. Your diagram should include the probability for each region.
3. Using your Venn diagram, or otherwise, find the probability that, on a randomly selected day, Ashwin
   (A) wears either a jacket or a tie (or both),
   (B) wears no tie or no jacket (or wears neither).

5 Sophie and James are having a tennis competition. The winner of the competition is the first to win 2 matches in a row. If the competition has not been decided after 5 matches, then the player who has won more matches is declared the winner of the competition. For example, the following sequences are two ways in which Sophie could win the competition. (S represents a match won by Sophie; \(\mathbf { J }\) represents a match won by James.) \section*{SJSS SJSJS}

1. Explain why the sequence \(\mathbf { S S J }\) is not possible.
2. Write down the other three possible sequences in which Sophie wins the competition.
3. The probability that Sophie wins a match is 0.7 . Find the probability that she wins the competition in no more than 4 matches.

2 Isobel plays football for a local team. Sometimes her parents attend matches to watch her play.

• \(A\) is the event that Isobel's parents watch a match.
• \(B\) is the event that Isobel scores in a match.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( B \mid A ) = \frac { 3 } { 7 }\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( A ) = \frac { 7 } { 10 }\).

1. Calculate \(\mathrm { P } ( A \cap B )\). The probability that Isobel does not score and her parents do not attend is 0.1 .
2. Draw a Venn diagram showing the events \(A\) and \(B\), and mark in the probability corresponding to each of the regions of your diagram.
3. Are events \(A\) and \(B\) independent? Give a reason for your answer.
4. By comparing \(\mathrm { P } ( B \mid A )\) with \(\mathrm { P } ( B )\), explain why Isobel should ask her parents not to attend.

6 It has been estimated that \(90 \%\) of paintings offered for sale at a particular auction house are genuine, and that the other \(10 \%\) are fakes. The auction house has a test to determine whether or not a given painting is genuine. If this test gives a positive result, it suggests that the painting is genuine. A negative result suggests that the painting is a fake. If a painting is genuine, the probability that the test result is positive is 0.95 .
If a painting is a fake, the probability that the test result is positive is 0.2 .

1. Copy and complete the probability tree diagram below, to illustrate the information above.
   
   [diagram]
   Calculate the probabilities of the following events.
2. The test gives a positive result.
3. The test gives a correct result.
4. The painting is genuine, given a positive result.
5. The painting is a fake, given a negative result. A second test is more accurate, but very expensive. The auction house has a policy of only using this second test on those paintings with a negative result on the original test.
6. Using your answers to parts (iv) and (v), explain why the auction house has this policy. The probability that the second test gives a correct result is 0.96 whether the painting is genuine or a fake.
7. Three paintings are independently offered for sale at the auction house. Calculate the probability that all three paintings are genuine, are judged to be fakes in the first test, but are judged to be genuine in the second test.

4 A local council has introduced a recycling scheme for aluminium, paper and kitchen waste. 50 residents are asked which of these materials they recycle. The numbers of people who recycle each type of material are shown in the Venn diagram. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{5e4f3310-b96e-43db-9b6d-61da3270db06-3_803_803_406_671} One of the residents is selected at random.

1. Find the probability that this resident recycles
   (A) at least one of the materials,
   (B) exactly one of the materials.
2. Given that the resident recycles aluminium, find the probability that this resident does not recycle paper. Two residents are selected at random.
3. Find the probability that exactly one of them recycles kitchen waste.

7 A screening test for a particular disease is applied to everyone in a large population. The test classifies people into three groups: 'positive', 'doubtful' and 'negative'. Of the population, \(3 \%\) is classified as positive, \(6 \%\) as doubtful and the rest negative. In fact, of the people who test positive, only \(95 \%\) have the disease. Of the people who test doubtful, \(10 \%\) have the disease. Of the people who test negative, \(1 \%\) actually have the disease. People who do not have the disease are described as 'clear'.

1. Copy and complete the tree diagram to show this information. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{5e4f3310-b96e-43db-9b6d-61da3270db06-5_830_1157_845_536}
2. Find the probability that a randomly selected person tests negative and is clear.
3. Find the probability that a randomly selected person has the disease.
4. Find the probability that a randomly selected person tests negative given that the person has the disease.
5. Comment briefly on what your answer to part (iv) indicates about the effectiveness of the screening test. Once the test has been carried out, those people who test doubtful are given a detailed medical examination. If a person has the disease the examination will correctly identify this in \(98 \%\) of cases. If a person is clear, the examination will always correctly identify this.
6. A person is selected at random. Find the probability that this person either tests negative originally or tests doubtful and is then cleared in the detailed medical examination.

2 In the 2001 census, people living in Wales were asked whether or not they could speak Welsh. A resident of Wales is selected at random.

• \(W\) is the event that this person speaks Welsh.
• \(C\) is the event that this person is a child.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( W ) = 0.20 , \mathrm { P } ( C ) = 0.17\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( W \cap C ) = 0.06\).

1. Determine whether the events \(W\) and \(C\) are independent.
2. Draw a Venn diagram, showing the events \(W\) and \(C\), and fill in the probability corresponding to each region of your diagram.
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( W \mid C )\).
4. Given that \(\mathrm { P } \left( W \mid C ^ { \prime } \right) = 0.169\), use this information and your answer to part (iii) to comment very briefly on how the ability to speak Welsh differs between children and adults.

6 In a large town, 79\% of the population were born in England, 20\% in the rest of the UK and the remaining 1\% overseas. Two people are selected at random. You may use the tree diagram below in answering this question. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{be764df3-ff20-415d-9c5c-10edabf350de-4_946_1119_580_513}

1. Find the probability that
   (A) both of these people were born in the rest of the UK,
   (B) at least one of these people was born in England,
   (C) neither of these people was born overseas.
2. Find the probability that both of these people were born in the rest of the UK given that neither was born overseas.
3. (A) Five people are selected at random. Find the probability that at least one of them was not born in England.
   (B) An interviewer selects \(n\) people at random. The interviewer wishes to ensure that the probability that at least one of them was not born in England is more than \(90 \%\). Find the least possible value of \(n\). You must show working to justify your answer.

1 A survey is being carried out into the sports viewing habits of people in a particular area. As part of the survey, 250 people are asked which of the following sports they have watched on television in the past month.

• Football
• Cycling
• Rugby

The numbers of people who have watched these sports are shown in the Venn diagram. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{870b6ef1-60f7-42e3-95f8-0544a2a07b15-1_725_921_728_622} One of the people is selected at random.

1. Find the probability that this person has in the past month
   (A) watched cycling but not football,
   (B) watched either one or two of the three sports.
2. Given that this person has watched cycling, find the probability that this person has not watched football.

3 Candidates applying for jobs in a large company take an aptitude test, as a result of which they are either accepted, rejected or retested, with probabilities \(0.2,0.5\) and 0.3 respectively. When a candidate is retested for the first time, the three possible outcomes and their probabilities remain the same as for the original test. When a candidate is retested for the second time there are just two possible outcomes, accepted or rejected, with probabilities 0.4 and 0.6 respectively.

1. Draw a probability tree diagram to illustrate the outcomes.
2. Find the probability that a randomly selected candidate is accepted.
3. Find the probability that a randomly selected candidate is retested at least once, given that this candidate is accepted.

4 Each weekday, Marta travels to school by bus. Sometimes she arrives late.

• \(L\) is the event that Marta arrives late.
• \(R\) is the event that it is raining.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( L ) = 0.15 , \mathrm { P } ( R ) = 0.22\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( L \mid R ) = 0.45\).

1. Use this information to show that the events \(L\) and \(R\) are not independent.
2. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( L \cap R )\).
3. Draw a Venn diagram showing the events \(L\) and \(R\), and fill in the probability corresponding to each of the four regions of your diagram.

5 Each weekday Alan drives to work. On his journey, he goes over a level crossing. Sometimes he has to wait at the level crossing for a train to pass.

• \(W\) is the event that Alan has to wait at the level crossing.
• \(L\) is the event that Alan is late for work.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( L \mid W ) = 0.4 , \mathrm { P } ( W ) = 0.07\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( L \cup W ) = 0.08\).

1. Calculate \(\mathrm { P } ( L \cap W )\).
2. Draw a Venn diagram, showing the events \(L\) and \(W\). Fill in the probability corresponding to each of the four regions of your diagram.
3. Determine whether the events \(L\) and \(W\) are independent, explaining your method clearly.

1 A survey is being carried out into the carbon footprint of individual citizens. As part of the survey, 100 citizens are asked whether they have attempted to reduce their carbon footprint by any of the following methods.

• Reducing car use
• Insulating their homes
• Avoiding air travel

The numbers of citizens who have used each of these methods are shown in the Venn diagram. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{e54eba7c-d862-435a-acdd-27df6ede5fab-1_699_1085_849_569} One of the citizens is selected at random.

1. Find the probability that this citizen
   (A) has avoided air travel,
   (B) has used at least two of the three methods.
2. Given that the citizen has avoided air travel, find the probability that this citizen has reduced car use. Three of the citizens are selected at random.
3. Find the probability that none of them have avoided air travel.

3 One train leaves a station each hour. The train is either on time or late. If the train is on time, the probability that the next train is on time is 0.95 . If the train is late, the probability that the next train is on time is 0.6 . On a particular day, the 0900 train is on time.

1. Illustrate the possible outcomes for the 1000,1100 and 1200 trains on a probability tree diagram.
2. Find the probability that
   (A) all three of these trains are on time,
   (B) just one of these three trains is on time,
   (C) the 1200 train is on time.
3. Given that the 1200 train is on time, find the probability that the 1000 train is also on time.

4 In a survey, a large number of young people are asked about their exercise habits. One of these people is selected at random.

• \(G\) is the event that this person goes to the gym.
• \(R\) is the event that this person goes running.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( G ) = 0.24 , \mathrm { P } ( R ) = 0.13\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( G \cap R ) = 0.06\).

1. Draw a Venn diagram, showing the events \(G\) and \(R\), and fill in the probability corresponding to each of the four regions of your diagram.
2. Determine whether the events \(G\) and \(R\) are independent.
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( R \mid G )\).

6 Whitefly, blight and mosaic virus are three problems which can affect tomato plants. 100 tomato plants are examined for these problems. The numbers of plants with each type of problem are shown in the Venn diagram. 47 of the plants have none of the problems. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{e54eba7c-d862-435a-acdd-27df6ede5fab-3_654_804_1262_699}

1. One of the 100 plants is selected at random. Find the probability that this plant has
   (A) at most one of the problems,
   (B) exactly two of the problems.
2. Three of the 100 plants are selected at random. Find the probability that all of them have at least one of the problems.

1 Laura frequently flies to business meetings and often finds that her flights are delayed. A flight may be delayed due to technical problems, weather problems or congestion problems, with probabilities \(0.2,0.15\) and 0.1 respectively. The tree diagram shows this information. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{10679ff3-494d-4f4e-a38a-0832faa91690-1_605_1650_534_284}

1. Write down the values of the probabilities \(a , b\) and \(c\) shown in the tree diagram. One of Laura's flights is selected at random.
2. Find the probability that Laura's flight is not delayed and hence write down the probability that it is delayed.
3. Find the probability that Laura's flight is delayed due to just one of the three problems.
4. Given that Laura's flight is delayed, find the probability that the delay is due to just one of the three problems.
5. Given that Laura's flight has no technical problems, find the probability that it is delayed.
6. In a particular year, Laura has 110 flights. Find the expected number of flights that are delayed.

2 Each day Anna drives to work.

• \(R\) is the event that it is raining.
• \(L\) is the event that Anna arrives at work late.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( R ) = 0.36 , \mathrm { P } ( L ) = 0.25\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( R \cap L ) = 0.2\).

1. Determine whether the events \(R\) and \(L\) are independent.
2. Draw a Venn diagram showing the events \(R\) and \(L\). Fill in the probability corresponding to each of the four regions of your diagram.
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( L \mid R )\). State what this probability represents.

3 In the 2001 census, people living in Wales were asked whether or not they could speak Welsh. A resident of Wales is selected at random.

• \(W\) is the event that this person speaks Welsh.
• \(C\) is the event that this person is a child.

You are given that \(\mathrm { P } ( W ) = 0.20 , \mathrm { P } ( C ) = 0.17\) and \(\mathrm { P } ( W \cap C ) = 0.06\).

1. Determine whether the events \(W\) and \(C\) are independent.
2. Draw a Venn diagram, showing the events \(W\) and \(C\), and fill in the probability corresponding to each region of your diagram.
3. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( W \mid C )\).
4. Given that \(\mathrm { P } \left( W \mid C ^ { \prime } \right) = 0.169\), use this information and your answer to part (iii) to comment very briefly on how the ability to speak Welsh differs between children and adults. [1]

1 In a large town, 79\% of the population were born in England, 20\% in the rest of the UK and the remaining \(1 \%\) overseas. Two people are selected at random. You may use the tree diagram below in answering this question. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{b56ccabe-0e51-4555-b550-78ba347f69bb-1_944_1118_626_547}

1. Find the probability that
   (A) both of these people were born in the rest of the UK,
   (B) at least one of these people was born in England,
   (C) neither of these people was born overseas.
2. Find the probability that both of these people were born in the rest of the UK given that neither was born overseas.
3. (A) Five people are selected at random. Find the probability that at least one of them was not born in England.
   (B) An interviewer selects \(n\) people at random. The interviewer wishes to ensure that the probability that at least one of them was not born in England is more than \(90 \%\). Find the least possible value of \(n\). You must show working to justify your answer.

3 Sophie and James are having a tennis competition. The winner of the competition is the first to win 2 matches in a row. If the competition has not been decided after 5 matches, then the player who has won more matches is declared the winner of the competition. For example, the following sequences are two ways in which Sophie could win the competition. ( \(\mathbf { S }\) represents a match won by Sophie; \(\mathbf { J }\) represents a match won by James.) \section*{SJSS SJSJS}

1. Explain why the sequence \(\mathbf { S S J }\) is not possible.
2. Write down the other three possible sequences in which Sophie wins the competition.
3. The probability that Sophie wins a match is 0.7 . Find the probability that she wins the competition in no more than 4 matches.

4 A local council has introduced a recycling scheme for aluminium, paper and kitchen waste. 50 residents are asked which of these materials they recycle. The numbers of people who recycle each type of material are shown in the Venn diagram. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{b56ccabe-0e51-4555-b550-78ba347f69bb-3_803_804_520_717} One of the residents is selected at random.

1. Find the probability that this resident recycles
   (A) at least one of the materials,
   (B) exactly one of the materials.
2. Given that the resident recycles aluminium, find the probability that this resident does not recycle paper. Two residents are selected at random.
3. Find the probability that exactly one of them recycles kitchen waste.

1 A screening test for a particular disease is applied to everyone in a large population. The test classifies people into three groups: 'positive', 'doubtful' and 'negative'. Of the population, \(3 \%\) is classified as positive, \(6 \%\) as doubtful and the rest negative. In fact, of the people who test positive, only \(95 \%\) have the disease. Of the people who test doubtful, \(10 \%\) have the disease. Of the people who test negative, \(1 \%\) actually have the disease. People who do not have the disease are described as 'clear'.

1. Copy and complete the tree diagram to show this information. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{f3d936ba-8f60-4350-a5b3-92200996434c-1_833_1156_851_573}
2. Find the probability that a randomly selected person tests negative and is clear.
3. Find the probability that a randomly selected person has the disease.
4. Find the probability that a randomly selected person tests negative given that the person has the disease.
5. Comment briefly on what your answer to part (iv) indicates about the effectiveness of the screening test. Once the test has been carried out, those people who test doubtful are given a detailed medical examination. If a person has the disease the examination will correctly identify this in \(98 \%\) of cases. If a person is clear, the examination will always correctly identify this.
6. A person is selected at random. Find the probability that this person either tests negative originally or tests doubtful and is then cleared in the detailed medical examination.